This came from the comments section by poster Nick F., I believe his comments give a uniquely qualfied perspective to this subject. So, here you go:
“It has been interesting to see all the reporting, speculation, predictions etc. etc. surrounding the new developments concerning North Korean capabilities and intentions. My first inclination is to just redirect everyone back to Jacks post if you want a comprehensive analysis, but since I can’t seem to keep from giving my opinion, I’ve decided to write about what I have observed and experienced.
I noticed the other day, that as the news was reporting about the latest developments concerning NK’s nuclear weapons development; they mentioned that NK started their nuclear weapons program in 2002. The only way a professional journalism outlet could air something that absurd, was if it was calculated. They certainly didn’t get that figure from any reputable government agency, which has been well aware of North Korean nuclear weapons program dating back to the beginning of the second term of the Clinton Administration. Of course reporting facts about North Koreas development of WMD would be more harmful to Clintons legacy rather than GW’s administration, and why would the media let the facts get in the way of a good story.
So North Korea has Nuclear weapons…maybe. This is certainly a security concern for the United States, but it is a much larger concern for South Korea and Japan. So for those of you who are wondering why we haven’t dedicated more time and attention to North Korea, there is part of your answer.
North Korea is run by a demagogue to be sure. I am not convinced however, that the man is insane. North Korea only produces about 65-70% of the food stuffs it requires to feed its population. Extorting money from the west and more closely from westernized Asian markets like their rich neighbors to the south and east has become their economic strategy of choice. In addition to the benefits that North Korea enjoys from blackmailing their neighbors, China enjoys the prestige they receive by constantly intervening on behalf of their miserable little lap dog. Isn’t it funny how every time North Korea decides to cause trouble for the region, the two chief beneficiaries are always South Korea in the from of economic concessions, and China in the way of political concessions.
The potential for North Korea to hand off nuclear weapons to terrorists is far more limited and suspect than say Iran. So I for one believe their testing to be centered around their desire to acquire concessions. And why shouldn’t they expect them? Clinton was more than happy to give into their demands in the 90’s. And after being shown up by a tin pot dictator he was hailed by this countries media as some sort of diplomatic wiz. Forget the fact that North Korea reneged on the deal before the ink was wet on the contract. In true Neville Chamberlain fashion we appeased a militant dictator, then low and behold he didn’t live up to his end of the bargain. We remember Chamberlain as a sub standard politician. I wonder how this misstep by the Clinton administration will eventually be remembered by historians.
Jack made good comparisons of North Korea and South Korean equipment. Now admittedly, I havent ever worked with the North Korean Army, but I have had an opportunity to train with elements of the South Korean military. In addition to this I have had a chance to see much of the South Korean portion of the peninsula. I have also done a bit of research of each military, their capabilities, and potential strategic goals of a North Korean invasion.
Based on these considerations it is my opinion that the North simply doesn’t stand a chance against the South with, or without US assistance in a prolonged military action. Even with the benefit of nuclear weapons and the potential devastation they could wrought on the south Korean population, North Korea simply does not, in and of itself posses the economy, or the allies to fight the type of war that would be necessary to defeat the south Korean military and subdue her population.
The Korean peninsula illustrates probably better than any other world example the superiority of free enterprise and democratic government with the rule of law over a centrally planned, despotism. Because of the economic differences South Korea posses the ability to replace losses far faster and efficiently than the North could. I wouldn’t want to be any where near the opening barrage of a North Korean Invasion, but I do not believe they would even be able to take Seoul. North Korean Supply lines would come under constant attack and they simply would not be able to adequately provide for the massive army they would undoubtedly send over the border.
Even the idea of North Korea actually utilizing nuclear weapons to achieve this goal is somewhat in question. While their is little doubt that North Korea would use nuclear weapons as a last ditch effort to protect the collapse of the regime, it is far less certain that they would use such a weapon to devastate the economic center they wish to possess.
I’d be interested in hearing other points.
Maybe Libby can flip out again, that was amusing. Once again she shows a careful combination of ignorance tempered by an extreme arrogance, which suggests that the research she has conducted is comprised of flipping through the political section of Rolling Stone Magazine.”