by Jack Lee
What happens if we pull out of Iraq? A civil war on an apocalyptic scale is my guess.
You probably guessed about the same, because you know there’s so much hate that has built up from 30 years of Saddam’s regime and a 1000 years of conflict within Islam. We see it spilling over in the form of sectarian violence every day. Iraq’s become like a huge pressure religious cooker and look who is sitting on the lid!
Without our presence to keep that lid in place only the terminally naive could believe it will not immediately explode into a bloody civil war. So, the questions before us as we enter into this election, what happens if we DO leave suddenly and what is the long range prognosis? Better yet, is it even possible for us to keep this situation from exploding? I’ll be the first to admit, I don’t know and I doubt even Solomon could know, however we can make a few guesstaments or extrapolations based on what we do know from recent past practice and my favorite teacher….history.
Sunni’s are the moderates and they are currently better funded than their opposition, the Shiite’s who are more numerous by a 3 to 1 ratio. Sunni’s in some countries, like Saudi Arabia, have turned to fundamentalism in their religious schools for Jihadists to counter the Shia Jihadists that threaten them. Obviously this is not their only motive for producing fundamentalist radicals, but that’s another problem for another time.
The potential for the spread of violence is incredibly high
and consequences could be long lasting and catastrophic.
The issues in this pending conflict may seem new, but they are as old as the origins of religion and the chaos that followed when two competing religions first met. The far right of Shia’s and the far right of the Sunni’, devoutly and intractably believe… their interpretation of Islam is the right interpretation and they will fight to death to prove it. They believe to question their religious authority is to contradict the word of God. They truly believe their struggle is just and no sacrifice is too great; better to die for God and live in heaven than to exist in world surrounded by corruption or usurpers (mistaken believers in Islam). They both believe they will prevail because God ordains it; they are the chosen ones. The more centrists views inside the Nation of Islam either fall on deaf ears or if they are too close to the radicals, then they are not openly expressed for logical reasons of self preservation!
On strictly religious terms, the Gulf region and to some degree, all Muslim nations, have a vested interest in the future of Iraq and their reasons are varied, complex and often passion driven. Given this passion element, it doesn’t take a leap of logic to see how a religious war in Iraq could draw in determined fighters from every nation in the world with a substantial Islamic population…this includes a number of European countries too. Let’s not overlook the Islamofication of Europe and all that it means when push comes to beheading. The potential for the spread of violence is incredibly high and consequences could be long lasting and catastrophic.
“This is complicated stuff!” Donald Rumsfeld – 10/26/06
If the Shia in Iraq prevail they will have done so with the aid of the US. They would not have had a chance under the Bathist regime. They would be somewhat indebted to us if this happened, but then the influence from Iran would be greater than ever as a Shia corridor would exist from Tehran to the Red Sea and that can’t be good for anyone. If the Sunni prevail it will be because of Turkey, Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia. I know, we haven’t even got to what all this means for Al Qaeda. Chaos creates a vacuum of power and there’s Al Qaeda’s opportunity to exploit. Connect those dots friends…it’s mind numbing. I’m sure this was the reason Bush Sr. left Hussein in charge after Gulf 1!
How far do you want to extrapolate this potential conflict? I suppose I could go on for pages, but in the spirit of a blog I’ll leave the rest to your imagination and to your “comments“. To that end, Tina and I would really like to hear what you have to say!
“We saved the Iraqi’s from Saddam, but we may not be able to save them from themselves.” Carl Levin
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For a better understanding may I suggest….
Kabbalah theory – Adam, Moses and Abraham, the latter being the common prophet between Islam and Judaic beliefs.
Principles of Islam and and again here.
Sunni and Shia differences, Abu Muhammad al-Afriqi and this site.
Origins of Karbalah, why Muslims martyr.