By Jack Lee
On Friday North Korea warned South Korea, “The intensity and scope of the strike will be more serious than the Nov. 23rd shelling,” if the South should hold another live artillery drill on the front-line island of Yeonpyeong. The tiny island is just seven miles from North Korea’s shores. In the last attack four South Korean civilians were killed when over 100 artillery shells rained down on their homes. The island is dotted with houses, a fishing port and a small military base.
South Korea has said it plans a one-day, live-fire drill sometime between Saturday (today) and next Tuesday on Yeonpyeong. Seoul says the drills’ timing will depend on weather and other factors and, despite the North’s threats, the exercises will go ahead as planned. The artillery rounds to be fired are away from North Korea and pose no threat to them.
This shelling and the sinking of a South Korean patrol boat on March 26th, 2010 is no coincidence and may have a lot more to do with North Korean politics than any issues with South Korea [1]. Military analysts strongly believe these events are linked to the leadership transfer under way from Kim Jong-il (who is in poor health) to his son, Kim Jong-un. Kim Jong-un has no military experience and he needed some sort of victory over the South to show he is a strong and capable leader. [2]
When it comes to North Korea, there is what they say and then there is the hidden agenda and the truth.
South Korea has vowed if they are attacked again they will respond with airpower, presumably to knock out the artillery sites in North Korea. China and Russia are pressuring Seol not to take any action which could increase tensions between the two Koreas. The US has been consulting with both China and Russia as well as South Korea on this situation.
1. The South Korean patrol boat was later determined to be sunk by a torpedo presumably fired from a North Korean sub while it was in contested waters. 44 of the 104 crew died as a result.
2. Kim Jong-un-26, is the youngest of 3 siblings, and his fathers favorite because he is the spitting image of his Dad. He is also known for his ruthless attitude and trash talk. More recently, he has been described in reports as overweight, diabetic, and possibly prone to health conditions in the wake of a car accident.
Since Kim Jong Il’s stroke, Pyongyang has effectively been run by Kim’s brother-in-law, Chang Sung Taek, who is married to the dictator’s younger sister. The fluid, unpredictable nature of politics around the ruler can never be underestimated: in 2003, Kim, suspicious that Chang was building up a power base of his own, had him placed under house arrest for a year, relenting only after Kim’s sister pleaded her husband’s case.