The Obama Administration is facing a no win situation over Libya. Recent polling shows a majority of Americans want out of Afghanistan and they absolutely don’t want too take on a new war if it can be avoided. Iraq and Afghanistan have taken their toll. Almost every American has now been touched in some way by these wars and the payoff for it all is nowhere in sight. We’re already in a 3rd war against radical Islam, not because we feel the need to rid the world of vermin, but because they do. It wasn’t out choice, they declared war on us. But where’s the compelling reason for us to become involved in Libya? I never thought I would say this, but I agree with President Obama on this one.
His reasoning is as simple as it is rational, it’s not our fight. We’re not going to be the world’s policeman forever . In theory the UN and the Arab nations have more than enough resources to defeat the Kadafy regime in a matter of days, if they willed it. It’s time the UN grew a spine, but the reason haven’t is mostly because the United States was always their to do the fighting for them.
When the revolt began Libyans made it clear this was their war. They did not want the United States involved. There was more than enough anti-American sentiment expressed by Libyans to convince me – the mantra was, this is our war, USA stay away! You saw the banners, you heard their message – they told us to stay out!
That was weeks ago and since those days of bravado the overly confident anti-Kadafy forces have seen their momentum completely reverse course. Instead of chasing, they are being chased. This is what happens when you have no leadership, just a mob.
The rebels relied on their enthusiasm and courage, but against tanks that will only get you dead. They are being slaughtered en mass by the government’s regular army backed up by air power. Kadafy is using all of his military might to ruthlessly wipe out dissenters. He’s not interested in prisoners either, if a rebel is caught they’re shot. And thousands of rebels have been caught and thousands have been murdered. Now the revolutionaries are in full retreat and their crying for help…even from the USA they have been taught to hate.
As much as we might feel sympathy for the underdogs fighting against a tyrant, we have no good choices to make. Dr. James Lindsay, a Senior Vice President of the Council on Foreign Relations reports the 7 choices we have:
1) Impose a “no-fly zone.” This is what the U.S. did over parts of Iraq for more than a decade after the 1991 Gulf War. We could also go beyond that and bomb airport runways so they are unusable.
Neither of these steps would help the rebels much. The Libyan Air Force has been a non-factor in the fighting so far. A no-fly zone and cratered runways also would not help the rebels deal with the real threat they face, namely, artillery and multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS). These advanced weapons are capable of leveling entire neighborhoods.
2) Impose a “no-drive zone.” The White House could tackle the artillery and MLRSthreat by bombing these and other heavy weapons. That, however, clearly makes the United States a participant in Libya’s civil war. A no-drive zone would also be ineffective if Kadafy’s forces have already dispersed their heavy weapons into cities and towns. Attacking them in place runs a high risk of killing and injuring civilians.
3) Push someone else to intervene in Libya. But who would volunteer? European countries don’t want to re-assume the colonial mantle. Most of Libya’s neighbors either lack the ability or desire to take on a peacemaking mission. Countries outside the region would prefer to worry about their own problems.
4) Directly arm the rebels. This policy is gaining support on Capitol Hill. But it may merely increase the carnage rather than give the rebels the upper hand. Sophisticated weapons require training to use, but no one is talking about sending in trainers.
Equally troubling, the weapons we want Libyans to use against Kadafy (aka Gadhafi)could wind up in the wrong hands and be used against us down the road. What succeeds Gadhafi’s regime may not be a stable, broad-based government but something that looks more like Somalia.
5) Ask other countries to arm the rebels. Unfortunately, that doesn’t solve the problem of weapons ending up in the wrong hands. Would the Saudis, for instance, be careful to make sure that weapons don’t fall in to the hands of Islamic extremists who are as mad at the West as they are at Gadhafi?
6) Provide tactical military intelligence to the rebels. Real-time information about the regime’s troops movements would help the rebels direct their own forces. But it would not be a game changer.
7) Provide the rebels with moral and humanitarian support but nothing else. Debates in Washington always presume that the White House has to do something. But it can choose to do nothing. That sounds cold-hearted, especially when cable news, YouTube, and Twitter will bring the fighting into our living rooms.
But the United States has stood on the sidelines many times before when people struggled to overthrow a tyrant. Moral outrage can give way to calculations of self-interest or political expediency.
None of these options is appealing. That is why inside the White House officials are no doubt hoping that events will save them from having to choose among them.
And possibly why games of golf, fun dinners with media types, and conferences on bullying are being given the highest priority in the WH…AND, in that order.
And Geeez…did I hear that France is taking the lead on the no fly zone option?
Obama will just go stick his head in a sand trap until its over. If Obama had acted early in this thing, it would be over by now and he would have come out of it looking great. Now he just looks like the limp @#$% he is.
It will be interesting to see how this unfolds and how things play out.
I think that the US (and especially under Obama) should stay out of it.
The US has a 50 year history of supporting Arab and Persian tyrants and despots in the Middle East for strategic interests and getting burned for it in the international community and by the very people we have supported.
While we might go far in repairing our reputation as a force for democracy, humanity, and justice by taking a leadership role, it is long past time for Arabs and the sniveling, smarmy, backstabbing, self-indulgent Eurotrash community to step up to the plate.
Sure, I would prefer, under certain circumstances, we take a more positive public leadership role, it is just that I don’t trust our leadership.
No thank you Margo, I think we should let the Middle East sort this out for themselves and do the best we can behind the scenes.
The bottom line on Libya is this: If by some miracle Gadhafi is defeated, he will likely only be replaced by another strong man tyrant. This area has a followed that formula for over at least two millennium and I see no reason why it should change now.
Sorry kids, but standing up for truth, justice, and the American way just doesn’t compute in much of the world.
Pie…yup, we agree.
True!
No matter what Obama does, the small minded will criticize him–if they are told to. They fail to realize that intervention requires the sacrifice of other peoples’ children. Is 3% of our oil supply worth anyone’s life?These pathetic armchair generals are disgraceful, and reveal their complete lack of humanity.
Iraq is proof that national peace is impossible in tribal societies.
France should before us, they have a whole lot of Libyan ex pats living in France now. Italy could do it too. Did you know Libya was once controlled by Italy?
So now that its pretty much all over, why is Clinton meeting with the soon to be killed rebel leaders? What is the point? What is being said at that meeting?
Not everything Obama does is wrong. Because of my bias against the man I have to restrain myself when a good story comes along that would damage him. More than once I have found that the story I was following was false or at least very misleading. Sometimes at PS we’ve been fooled, but at least we try to find the truth before jumping into action. Bias can be a very dangerous thing if its allowed to go too far. We know that and we try to get it right.
This is a fair article, Jack, but I am confused by the purpose of the photoshopped picture.
What makes you think it’s been photoshopped? Is something wrong with it? Hmm didnt notice.
Chris, it’s just to go with the story. Some times the Prez must wear his army hat, sometimes he wears his financial hat and this time he was wearing his Arab hat. Nothing meant by it, just being creative.
Toby, if you can’t tell it’s photoshopped you need to get your eyes checked.
Jack, I accept your explanation…it just jumped out at me because I’ve seen similar images attached to stories that aim to prove Obama is a Sooper Sekrit Muslim, or similar nonsense. The image brings to mind the constant attempts to try and paint Obama as a foreign Other, or sinister Manchurian Candidate. But I know that was not your intention.
Now it seems that Obama wants to go in and kill him some Libyans. Why now? Why not two weeks ago when he could have saved some lives? Why now, now that its pretty much a lost cause? I would really like to know what kind of deals were made in the meetings with Clinton and the rebels. You may want to move this back to the top of the stack, this is a huge story.
Toby, as you know timing in war is everything and Obama’s timing reflects what a 2nd rate novice he is. Did you really expect better?