The celebrated demographics forecaster Harry S. Dent Jr forecasts a stock market crash by the end of February in his New York Times Bestseller ‘The Great Depression Ahead: How to prosper in the debt crisis of 2010-12.
From around 10,000 today he has two scenarios for the Dow Jones in 2010: one, a fall to 3,300-4,600 in a broad crash also taking down real estate and commodities, including gold and oil; second, for the Dow to go even lower to 2,200-3,500.
Mixed track-record
Both are apocalyptic for stock market investors. Harry Dent made his name in the early 90s with a counter-consensus and very accurate, super bullish prediction about the outlook for stocks. His specialty is the study of demographics, or population trends, as a means of forecasting the future.
In his current book he apologizes some past errors, with a real howler being a stock market bubble in the late 2000s that just never happened or came close. Indeed, he is almost humble about noting the complexity of intermingled cycles that make forecasting tough.
Yet he has made some good calls in the past and his use of demographics is original and based in solid statistical information about population trends. There is also truth in his contention that the broad trends he mapped in his first forecasting coup in the early 90s did include an big downturn in 2009-2012.
Aside from his demographic analysis, Mr. Dent stands as a deflationist. He cooly says that all the government spending in the world will not offset the deflationary impact of a private sector collapse in business activity and trade, driven by falling consumption and a house price implosion.
Sometimes the simplest observations prove to be the best guides to future stock movements. For if this statement on deflation stands up then financial markets are currently way overvalued and heading for an imminent fall.
What is surely interesting for stock market investors is that Harry Dent is standing back from the day-to-day noise of the market. He is not talking about Greek or Dubai debt. He is not worrying about the latest unemployment or housing figures. His analytical model saw this coming twenty years ago.
For more on this click here.
Mort Zuckerman has been calling this one since about 2003, when he said, the construction boom had artificially inflated people’s incomes all over the country, all the way down to construction workers themselves. He described Chico – construction workers flush with money, buying expensive houses for themselves, getting credit cards, new cars. I knew a dozen families that fit this model.
Then Bust! Just like Zuckerman called it. All our friends started losing their jobs. A couple of major developers just QUIT BUILDING and laid off many of their long-time employees. My husband had worked for both those developers for years.
Luckily my family had a plan – we saw the handwriting in U.S. News! Mort Zuckerman is never wrong.
Most of our friends continued to make ends meet for a few years, but are in major trouble. One illness in the family and the house is going to go, know what I mean? No college for the kids – my god, if only the kids could get jobs!!!
They’re all getting older now too – like my husband. You can’t pound nails forever Babeee! So now, when they’d usually be slowing down and going into “pre-retirement,” letting the kids move along in the trades, these old guys, 45, 50, 60 years old, are still out there, banging away. That isn’t good.
Round Two comes when these people who have been eeeking by will not be able to go on, and start losing their houses. I hear this in those increasing ads about “reverse mortgage” – they know, a lot of older homeowners are in trouble.
Like I say, my family has a plan, it’s called, “Hold on by the skin of your teeth!” Luckily I come from a long line of bronc busters.
Juanita, so you think Harry Dent might be right? Well, I’m not sure, but I do know there are many things ahead of us that could easily derail our economy. Did you know that manufacturing now represents only 12% of our economy? That’s a huge change and I think we would be wise to start ramping up manufacturing by whatever means needed. We’re really risk exposed on a number of levels and it only takes one collapse to bring down our fragile house of credit cards.
“Did you know that manufacturing now represents only 12% of our economy?” Yes, and I think that’s the “duh” part of the whole economy conversation. Trying to get that across to people like Barack Obama and Ann Schwab is like trying to drive a tractor in their ear.
did you watch McLaughlin Group yesterday? They were talking about a report out of the Congressional Budget Office that says the top one percent of Americans saw a 275 percent increase in income over the last quarter century, while the average working American only saw a 40 percent increase.
Now, you know the OWS people will say that’s because the top one percent STOLE all the money. No, it’s because nobody else in this country has been adequately employed for 28 years. That’s about exactly how many years ago people like Warren Buffett started outsourcing manufacturing to Mexico and Asia. Yes, Buffett outsourced the textile industry, that fat little twirp, and now he has the nerve to tell us we don’t pay enough taxes.
Right away Pat Buchanan complained that we have lost our manufacturing base. He says we used to produce 96 percent of what we consumed. I think he’s right – I been going through all my old stuff left by my family – old dishes, clothes, etc – and it’s been weird reading “Made in the USA” on various labels, you just don’t see that anymore.
John McLaughlin says it’s because the Chinese and the Indians are better educated “and cheaper.” I think he’s right.
Of course you realize, it takes an intelligent, fairly well educated person to be any kind of employee, even a factory worker needs good sense and work ethic. Frankly, it takes good critical thinking skills just to figure out why you are standing on your feet all day working like a dog – so you can make a better life for yourself and your family. It takes a fairly educated person to have hope for tomorrow, to know that life gets better when you work hard. It also takes intelligence to SHARE, knowing that what’s good for your employer is and should always be good for you. I don’t think the employers are getting that part of the deal either these days.
As a culture I’m afraid we have put aside our work ethic and our sense of nation for the “fast buck and cheap thrill” – instant gratification of SELF. It’s all about Me, Myself and Irene these days. And that’s not intelligent.
My husband’s uncle, an inventor, owns a factory in Germany – actually, the plant has been employee-owned for over five years now, since he and his wife went into semi-retirement. They make machines that they sell around the planet. His son complained to me that when they sell their machines to American companies, they are broken within a year. These are polite people, but if you know Germans, you know how frank they are. Our German relatives complain that Americans are LAZY.
And, our schools are crap, I can tell you that. Remember, Chico State provides most of the teachers in this area, and their teaching program is so bad it actually lost accreditation for a few years in the 1990’s. It’s worse now – whole departments devoted to stuff like “diversity” and “sustainability”. Visit a local school, talk to your kids/grandkids about what they do in school all day. You’ll worry.
Right now Ann Schwab’s Sustainability Task Force Ad Hoc Education Committee is preparing a lesson plan for local school kids to tell all about how much energy their family uses at home (asking the kids to bring their energy bills from home) and how many car trips their parents make a day. That’s the kind of stuff that takes up classroom time nowadays. Hopefully they’ll be some math in that.
thanks for the chatter Jack. Watch out for flying brooms today (insert hideous cackle here…)
Great comment Juanita you have nailed the problems that plague the nations employers, especially in manufacturing. Your comments about eduaction were also right on the money! I enjoyed reading every word.
The only thing I would add to your assessment about what drives jobs out of the country is the high cost of government regulation, insurances, and a punishing corp tax rate (compared to other countries).
Heritage sums up the regulatory problem very well.
http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2011/07/Red-Tape-Rising-A-2011-Mid-Year-Report
This represents only the federal regulatory burden. Sates like our very own add to that cost figure substantially (and with cap and trade its growing).
The cost to business to comply with our complex tax laws is also significant at both the federal and state levels.
Many manufacturers also face big product liability insurance due to the high cost of frivilous lawsuits (we need tort reform).
And of course government sponsored health care has driven the cost of insuring employees just as it has for private citizens.
Both citizen employees and business have less to spend because of these burdens. All drive up the cost of goods, services, parts, insurances, food, etc.
The businesses most effected by these cost burdens are smaller businesses with 100 or fewer employees (see chart at link) and they traditionally employed the highest percentage of workers.
http://www.census.gov/econ/smallbus.html
As long as our government remains hostile to the job creators in America, and as long as the people fail to understand this, we will have fewer opportunities for good paying jobs. Citizens who remain distracted by a few unscrupulous bums in large corporations and banks would do well to focus their attention on these problems and the solutions nthat would put them back to work and right our failing economy.
Thanks Juanita…good job…and entertaining too!
Brooms up at the bewitching hour.
Ditto what Tina said. Juanita, excellent comments.
thanks for listening you guys – here’s the link on that congressional budget report –
http://cbo.gov/ftpdocs/124xx/doc12485/10-25-HouseholdIncome.pdf
I read more, and it just kept making me madder. They identify the groups in the “top 1 percent” – #2 is MEDICAL PROFESSIONALS! Like we didn’t see that!
There are some who may believe in a 2012 Depression and they have taken matters in their own hands. I wonder if there has been any research from other states? This from the Washington Examiner: Feeding at the trough — literally
WHO: Tennessee Department of Human Services
WHAT: According to the Chattanooga Times-Free Press, nearly 1,000 state employees receive federal aid in the form of food stamps.
WHY IT’S AN OUTRAGE: Nearly a quarter of those work for the state agency that administers the food stamp program. Coincidence?
WHERE TO VENT: Tennessee Department of Human Services: (615) 313-4700.
Read more at the Washington Examiner: http://washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/daily-outrage/2011/10/daily-outrage-bureaucrats-literally-feeding-trough#ixzz1cT0LPtEn