Latest Polling – Obama’s Bounce is Fading

President Obama came out of his nominating convention surging in the polls, both nationally and in key states he will need to carry to win in the Electoral College — but the high already is beginning to fade, and pollsters said he didn’t fundamentally alter what’s still a neck-and-neck race.

“This is standard ups and downs,” said John Zogby, who conducts polling for The Washington Times. “I had suggested this was a no-bounce year, and I guess maybe I was wrong. Obama clearly got a bounce from his convention. But I’m starting to get questions about, ‘Is it all over?’ Of course not.”

Still, pollsters across the board said Mr. Obama did make clear and sustainable gains over the past month, particularly with some demographics such as women, young voters and Hispanics.

“With the Romney campaign reeling on issues unrelated to the economy, the President enters the fall campaign in a much stronger position to sustain a lead, bolstered by the dynamics of the race,” James Carville and Stan Greenberg, who together run Democracy Corps, said in a memo Friday outlining the parameters of the race.

Both parties went into their conventions trying to win over women voters, and on that score Mr. Carville and Mr. Greenberg said the president “won hands down.”

Read more: Obama’s convention bounce begins to fade – Washington Times http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/sep/16/obamas-convention-bounce-begins-to-fade/#ixzz26gkLBHr8 Follow us: @washtimes on Twitter

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7 Responses to Latest Polling – Obama’s Bounce is Fading

  1. Tina says:

    Boy that Carville: “…and on that score Mr. Carville and Mr. Greenberg said the president “won hands down.”

    They make winning a demographic that Obama already had sound like a really big deal, don’t they?

    News flash! Women that were going to vote for Obama will still vote for him…whoo-ooopdy-doo.

    I can see old Serpenthead now, grinning from ear to ear, shaking his head so as to avoid eye contact and swearing up and down that Obama has an edge because of the women.

    Breitbart crunches numbers and methodology in recent polling:

    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/09/16/cbs-obama-leads-in-d-13-poll

    …Friday’s CBS/New York Times poll, for example, uses a D+13 sample of registered voters. This is absurd.

    In 2008, an historic election wave for Democrats, the electorate was D+7. In 2004, when George W. Bush won reelection, the electorate was evenly split. In other words, D+0. Repeat after me; the Democrat share of the electorate is not going to double this year. Given the well-noted enthusiasm edge for Republicans this year, the electorate is going to be far closer to the 2004 model than 2008. Any poll trying to replicate the 2008 is going to artificially inflate Obama’s support.

    CBS does apply a Likely Voter screen to the head-to-head match up. The LV sample is D+6, similar to the make up of the 08 election. In that, Obama leads Romney by just 3 points, 49-46. In the RV sample, which more than doubles the proportion of Democrats to D+13, Obama leads by 8 points, 51-43. See the simple relationship there?

    Let’s try a simple thought experiment. Imagine if, for a week, all media polls decided to use a sample that replicated the 2004 electorate–a D+0 model. Given the GOP’s enthusiasm edge–even the CBS poll found Republicans voters with a double-digit lead on enthusiasm for the election–the electorate is going to look a lot more like 2004 than 2008. Imagine how the narrative of the campaign would change. The CBS poll found Romney beating Obama among Independents by 11 points. With a balanced partisan sample, Romney would likely post consistent leads against Obama.

    A week of this and Politico would run out of fuel for its daily “Romney is struggling” theme. Which is why the media will never adjust its samples. This election, it isn’t so much about polling as propaganda. The polls are simply a tool being used by the media to try to depress GOP turnout and give a powerful lift to Obama’s obviously lackluster campaign.

    The polls confirm that the media aren’t really biased. Rather, they are active players for the other team.

    Yep!

  2. Peggy says:

    I believe this guy says it all! I also believe we have no choice but to vote Obama out otherwise I foresee a potential civil war breaking out again in the US.

    This may have been posted before. If so it’s still worth a second read.

    From: John Porter
    To: Americans everywhere

    I was sitting at my keyboard halfway through my writing a letter to you about how Barack Obama was fulfilling his pledge to “Transform America” by “Changing the fundamentals of America”, so that our government would become the plantation, he the owner, and we the slaves, when this article by Steve McCann appeared in my in box. After checking it for accuracy, and finding it so, I put my writing on hold and here present it to you, for I could not say it better.

    …Is it already too late?

    Obama’s Second Term Transformation Plans

    The 2012 election has often been described as the most pivotal since 1860. This statement is not hyperbole. If Barack Obama is re-elected the United States will never be the same, nor will it be able to re-capture its once lofty status as the most dominant nation in the history of mankind.

    The overwhelming majority of Americans do not understand that Obama’s first term was dedicated to putting in place executive power to enable him and the administration to fulfill the campaign promise of “transforming America in his second term regardless of which political party controls Congress. That is why his re-election team is virtually ignoring the plight of incumbent or prospective Democratic Party office holders.

    The most significant accomplishment of Obama’s first term is to make Congress irrelevant. Under the myopic and blindly loyal leadership of Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi, the Democrats have succeeded in creating an imperial and, in a second term, a potential dictatorial presidency.

    During the first two years of the Obama administration when the Democrats overwhelming controlled both Houses of Congress and the media was in an Obama worshipping stupor, a myriad of laws were passed and actions taken which transferred virtually unlimited power to the executive branch.

    The birth of multi-thousand page laws was not an aberration. This tactic was adopted so the bureaucracy controlled by Obama appointees would have sole discretion in interpreting vaguely written laws and enforcing thousands of pages of regulations they and not Congress would subsequently write.

    For example, in the 2,700 pages of ObamaCare there are more than 2,500 references to the Secretary of Health and Human Services. There are more than 700 instances when he or she is instructed that they “shall” do something and more than 200 times when they “may” take at their sole discretion some form of regulatory action. On 139 occasions, the law mentions that the “Secretary determines.” In essence one person, appointed by and reporting to the president, will be in charge of the health care of 310 million Americans once ObamaCare is fully operational in 2014.

    The same is true in the 2,319 pages of the Dodd-Frank Financial Reform Act which confers nearly unlimited power on various agencies to control by fiat the nation’s financial, banking and investment sectors. The bill also creates new agencies, such as the ‘Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’, not subject to any oversight by Congress. This overall process was repeated numerous times with other legislation all with the intent of granting unfettered power to the executive branch controlled Barack Obama and his radical associates.

    Additionally, the Obama administration has, through its unilaterally determined rule making and regulatory powers, created laws out of whole cloth. The Environmental Protection Agency on a near daily basis issues new regulations clearly out of their purview in order to modify and change environmental laws previously passed and to impose a radical green agenda never approved by Congress. The same is true of the Energy and Interior Departments among many others.

    None of these extra-constitutional actions have been challenged by Congress. The left in America knows this usurpation of power is nearly impossible to reverse unless stopped in its early stages.

    It is clearly the mindset of this administration and its appointees that Congress is merely a nuisance and can be ignored after they were able to take full advantage of the useful idiots in the Democrat controlled House and Senate in 2009-2010 and the Democrat Senate in the current Congress.

    Additionally, Barack Obama knows after his re-election a Republican controlled House and Senate will not be able to enact any legislation to roll back the power previously granted to the Executive Branch or usurped by them. His veto will not be overridden as there will always be at least 145 Democratic members of the House or 34 in the Senate in agreement with or intimidated by an administration more than willing to use Chicago style political tactics.

    The stalemate between the Executive and Legislative Branches will inure to the benefit of Barack Obama and his fellow leftists.

    The most significant power Congress has is the control of the purse-strings as all spending must be approved by them. However, once re-elected, Barack Obama, as confirmed by his willingness to do or say anything and his unscrupulous re-election tactics, would not only threaten government shutdowns but would deliberately withhold payments to those dependent on government support as a means of intimidating and forcing a Republican controlled Congress to surrender to his demands, thus neutering their ability to control the administration through spending constraints.

    Further, this administration has shown contempt for the courts by ignoring various court orders, e.g. the Gulf of Mexico oil drilling moratorium, as well as stonewalling subpoenas and requests issued by Congress. The Eric Holder Justice Department has become the epitome of corruption as part of the most dishonest and deceitful administration in American history. In a second term the arrogance of Barack Obama and his minions will become more blatant as he will not have to be concerned with re-election.

    Who will be there to enforce the rule of law, a Supreme Court ruling or the Constitution? Nobody; Barack Obama and his fellow-travelers will be unchallenged as they run roughshod over the American people.

    Many Republicans and conservatives dissatisfied with the prospect of Mitt Romney as the nominee for president are instead focused on re-taking the House and Senate. That goal, while worthy and necessary, is meaningless unless Barack Obama is defeated. The nation is not dealing with a person of character and integrity but someone of single-minded purpose and overwhelming narcissism. Judging by his actions, words and deeds during his first term, he does not intend to work with Congress either Republican or Democrat in his second term but rather to force his radical agenda on the American people through the power he has usurped or been granted.

    The governmental structure of the United States was set up by the founders in the hope that over the years only those people of high moral character and integrity would assume the reins of power. However, knowing that was not always possible, they dispersed power over three distinct and independent branches as a check on each other.

    What they could not imagine is the surrender and abdication of its constitutional duty by the preeminent governmental branch, the Congress, to a chief executive devoid of any character or integrity coupled with a judiciary essentially powerless to enforce the law when the chief executive ignores them

    Conservatives, Libertarians, the Republican Party and Mitt Romney must come to grips with this moment in time and their historical role in denying Barack Obama and his minions their ultimate goal. All resources must be directed at that end-game and not merely controlling Congress and the various committee chairmanships.

    Steve McCann
    May 12, 2012

    I would add but 6 words to those above mentioned, Conservatives, Libertarians, the Republican Party and Mitt Romney, to say “and we the American people also”, must come to grips with this moment in time and our role in denying Barack Obama his lifelong goal of “transforming” us into his slaves working on his government plantation.

    Please forward this to all you can, maybe together we can save America for ourselves and those who will follow after us.

    May God bless America.
    Until next time:
    John Porter 118 Approach Drive
    Harrison , Arkansas 72601
    870-741-4119

  3. Chris says:

    I doubt Romney will experience much of a bounce after insulting half of Americans yesterday, less than two months before the election. Does this man even have campaign strategists?

    From the AP:

    “Already scrambling to steady a struggling campaign, Republican Mitt Romney confronted a new headache Monday after a video surfaced showing him telling wealthy donors that almost half of all Americans “believe they are victims” entitled to extensive government support. He added that as a candidate for the White House, “my job is not to worry about those people…”

    “There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what,” Romney is shown saying in a video posted online by the magazine. “There are 47 percent who are with him, who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe that government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you name it.”

    “Forty-seven percent of Americans pay no income tax,” Romney said.

    Romney said in the video that his role “is not to worry about those people. I’ll never convince them they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives.”

    http://start.toshiba.com/news/read.php?rip_id=%3CDA1BR4VG0%40news.ap.org%3E&ps=1018

    Smart move!

  4. Tina says:

    Saying things that are true and being honest about your assessment of the campaign situation is a hell of a lot more honorable and better for the American people than having a man who will lie, cheat, and throw money around to buy votes AND hasn’t got a clue how to make the economy work or conduct foreign affairs AND who plays golf and goes on vacation more often than he attends important security briefings, AND uses the word “I” as often as Bill Clinton, which is saying something!

    Try this:

    http://beforeitsnews.com/opinion-conservative/2012/09/big-three-networks-spent-20xs-more-time-on-romney-reaction-than-obamas-mistakes-2482092.html

    The Big Three (ABC, CBS, NBC) Wednesday evening newscasts devoted more than 9 minutes (9 minutes, 28 seconds) to the flap over Mitt Romneys statement criticizing the administrations handling of the Libyan crisis but spent just 25 seconds on questions regarding Barack Obamas Middle-East policy, a greater than 20-to-1 disparity.

    NBCs Brian Williams opened the Nightly News telling viewers: Romney is taking fire tonight for the way he went on the attack politicallysomehow [Romney] wanted today to be about America apologizing for its values, even after it became clear today was about the death of an American ambassador and others. CBS Evening News anchor Scott Pelley dutifully noted: Democrats said the governor had injected politics into a tragedy. Over on ABCs World News Diane Sawyer announced: Republican Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney under fire for comments he made about the upheaval as it was unfolding.

    Read the whole thing at NewsBusters. Is it any wonder we have to find out the details of what actually happened from foreign media sources? It was much worse than the US press would like you to believe, but that didnt stop President Obama from jetting off to Las Vegas for a campaign event.

    Romney gets to run against Obama, the incumbent, AND the press. If they were actually doing their job he probably never would have been elected in the first place and a lot more people would actually be working:

    http://www.infowars.com/the-real-unemployment-numbers-are-worse-than-you-are-being-told/

    -If the labor participation rate was sitting where it was when Barack Obama first took office, the unemployment rate in the United States would actually be 11.2 percent.

    -If the labor participation rate was sitting at the 30 year average of 65.8 percent, the unemployment rate in the United States would actually be 11.7 percent.

    -John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics would put the real rate of unemployment up around 23 percentafter adding in all workers that have given up looking for work and all underemployed workers.

    -The labor participation rate for men has fallen to 69.9 percent. This is the lowest level that it has been since the U.S. government began tracking this statistic back in 1948.

    -There was more bad news for manufacturing in this latest report. During the month of August the U.S. manufacturing sector lost approximately 15,000 jobs.

    -The official unemployment rate has now been above 8 percent for 43 months in a row.

    -The percentage of working age Americans with a job has been below 59 percent for 36 months in a row.

    -The employment numbers for both June and July were revised downward significantly. For June, it turns out that only45,000 jobs were added to the economy as opposed to the 64,000 that were originally reported. For July, it turns out that only 141,000 jobs were added to the economy as opposed to the 163,000 that were originally reported.

    -Incredibly, 58 percent of the jobs created since the end of the last recession have been low income jobs.

    -The U.S. economy currently has 4.7 million less jobs than it did when the last recession started.

    And the talking heads keep telling us its a recovery with a silver lining and Obama is doing a fabulous job!

    This is the man you support, Chris…a man that is ruining your chances at a future.

  5. Post Scripts says:

    Wow…Tina, you went right to the heart of this race and nailed it! Well said! -Jack

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