October Surprise: Unemployment Drops to 7.8% — But Skepticism Abounds

October 5, 2012 – by Jonathon M. Seidl

Unemployment drops to 44-month low to 7.8%
However, many are questioning the numbers due to “contradictory data points” such as the total employment level soaring but the low net number
Government says 873K people found work — but reports only 114K new jobs were added
Former GE CEO alleged fraud, sending a tweet saying “these Chicago guys will do anything”
Popular finance blog Zero Hedge even called it a “preelection ‘massaging’ farce”

In what will be one of the most influential jobs reports of the election season, unemployment fell from 8.1% to 7.8% in September, dropping below 8 percent for the first time in nearly four years. The private sector added 114,000 new jobs in September.

While another report will be released three days before the election, Friday’s report is the one that will provide the bulk of material on the campaign trail during the election’s crucial final month.

The numbers, however, are perplexing to CNBC, which notes that there are some oddities:

The report presented a slew of contradictory data points, with the total employment level soaring despite the low net number.

The falling jobless rate had been a function as much of the continued shrinking in the labor force as it was an increase in new positions.

But the government said the total number of jobs employed surged by 873,000, the highest one-month jump in 29 years. The total of unemployed people tumbled by 456,000.

The labor force participation rate, which reflects those working as well as looking for work, edged higher to 63.6 percent but remained around 30-year lows. The total labor force grew by 418,000, possibly accounting for the relatively modest net level of job growth.

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