by Jack
At this point there is slightly better than a 50-50 chance that Donald Trump will not get the necessary 1,237 delegates after the primary balloting. If that happens, it will go to the convention process for a roll call vote, state by state.
If there is still no change, then it moves from the first phase which is called an open or contested convention to a brokered convention. Brokered conventions were quite common before primary elections were instituted.
In a brokered convention some of the deligates will be released to vote their choice in the second round. If the needed votes are not there more deligates will be in the third round, and so on until no deligates are mandated to represent their state by the 6th round, a highly unlikely event.
This is normal and its been that way for over 176 years. Could Kasich or Cruz win in a brokered convention? Technically yes, more so for Cruz because of his current deligate count. Kasich being elected is almost an impossibility, but ironically in the polls he could defeat Hillary by the widest margin of all 3 republican candidates.
Also there was a GOP meeting in DC last week. No one knows exactly what was decided or talked about but the rumors here are also including running a second conservative candidate as a Independent. Bottom Line the Big Money is fighting for power. You have Trump, Maybe another GOP candidate or the establishment wins a brokered convention and the Clinton Machine.
Meanwhile the People are watching, are angry at the dress rehearsal of voter suppression and fraud for the general. All Voters are being affected including Republicans. I will say the very wealthy are not feeling the effect and I will assume CA will be easy to vote in as well.
My voter registration was 100% changed. I am among hundreds of reported cases. I am disgusted.
Dewey your voter registration was change in what way?
Nobody can say for sure what’s going to happen if the votes fall short and it goes to a brokered type convention. The last time this happened was Dwight D. Eisenhower. Even though the process will be followed and even though it has been around for over 170 years there will be allegations for fraud…can’t help that part. I hope there won’t be any fraud, but if delegates are released to vote their conscience, they may be vulnerable to some sort of payoff. Its really hard to say, but it could happen and if it does I can guarantee you it’s going to severely damage the GOP.
Ironically, Ca voters suddenly matter…a lot! So, we can expect the candidates to do a lot of campaigning here, personally I look forward to seeing all of them. This is exciting, its historic and we may never have another election like it.
Trump’s style has changed so much of the way that campaigns operate and whether you like him or not, this much is sure true. He has really had a big impact for better or worse.
Will he make it to the White House? Odds are… in my opinion, against it. Even though he’s done well in the primary, the general election is where it counts. There’s just too many special interests and a significant number of genuinely concerned citizens working against him. Plus Trump has made too many blunders, he’s really given the opposition a lot of ammo. There are too many people on the right that will do their best to stop Trump because they either think Trump is bad for America or that he’s just plain bad.
Polls show Hillary beating him in a head to head race, but not beating the other two. That’s troubling if Trump gets the GOP nomination because if he loses then its 4 more years of Obama style politics. I’m not sure the country can take 4 more years. If he wins I’m not sure what to expect…that’s troubling too!
Jack I was a registered Independent. Last Primary I voted in the Republican Primary and changed it back to Independent for the General. This Primary I registered Democrat to vote in the Democrat Primary.
What seems to have happened is when I checked my registration before primary day it said Active Democrat. When I got to the Polls I was told I was registered Indie and could not vote in the closed Primary.
I was turned away. I called the Registrar office the next day and I am indeed a registered Democrat for the Primary. Something happened at the polls where they had me as an Independent.
Now that could be called an error except there were others collecting with me as we demanded the right to vote. We stayed there and took pictures, exchanged names, ect.
Too many of us for this to be a mistake. Since leaving the polls I tweeted, and OMG there were hundreds of us!
There may be some lawsuits and we are demanding an Investigation. Bottom Line Whether Republican, Democrat, or Independent every citizens deserves the right to vote.
This seems to be a Dress rehearsal for the General. This election is being rigged. By who? Not sure? May be both parties at this point.
Please explain how “the very wealthy” are not “being affected” by voter suppression or voter fraud. As citizens they register to vote and pull the lever just like any other citizen.
I also don’t know how a person can change their voter registration by any percentage other than 100%. But we too are aware of the numbers of people leaving the two major parties.
The people are disgusted by corruption across the board, so you’re not alone.
Tina OMG! Come on now.
When you reduce the polling places by 70% and leave easy polling places for the gated and welathy neighborhoods? When the poor and Miniority neighborhoods have to travel 10 miles or more? Some people have no cars out here because they can not afford them. Car Insurance is very very high.
You live n the Great State of California and yet you complain. What I am experiencing out here is unreal!
You do not see America from your window in Chico. You have not a clue. It is very different out here in the east and I am in the south now. Travel as I do and understand America.
Specious accusations all!
Poor people find a way to get to the social Security office. They find their way to the grocery store. They manage to make it to the emergency room…even in the middle of the night.
They have plenty of advance notice when it comes to voting. there is more than enough time to make arrangements to vote. That includes voting by mail when a real hardship prevents travel.
And lets not forget the VAST effort to get out the vote in every single election. There are always people ready to bus and transport others to the polling places or help them to register to vote through the mail.
Polling places are disappearing in all neighborhoods. I haven’t had one in mine for over fifteen years! This is happening because of the vote by mail laws.
You’re not convincing, Dewey, just bigoted and vengeful. And you do not “understand” America. You represent yourself as one who has come from a socialist country who has yet to grasp the values and ideals of America, including the equal right to vote.
Tina,
It is simply a fact that the primary effect of voter ID laws has been to reduce legitimate voter turnout, not to prevent in-person voter fraud, which is extraordinarily rare. The only question at this point is if this is an unintended consequence, or whether this was the intent. Regardless, a simple cost-benefit analysis shows that voter ID laws have caused more problems than they have solved.
More information on this from Politico today:
Another take on Trumps actual support from the Washington Post:
WaPo says don’t buy the Trump has support of “silent majority” nonsense.
As of today the entire process has been a bunch of nonsense. Very discouraging.
That’s a good article, Tina. Trump supporters aren’t a silent majority, they’re a loud minority.
Ah, Tina, you are naive.
For instance, C. Fiorino’s campaign was sunk by, among other things, the revelation that she (a rich person) is a big campaign contributor, but does not vote.
You do live on a planet bearing no resemblance to this one.
“My voter registration was 100% changed.”
Tina,
Just another weird statement from screwy Dewey. You are never going to figure out what he means, not even he knows what he means.
🙂 So true. Others should have the benefit of a correction or alternative idea. That’s why I indulge his screwy Deweyness.
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