By Peggy
It turns out the delegate count prior to the GOP convention is considered an estimate and not the actual count. The official count will take place during the first vote on the convention floor. With all of the unbound delegates there is no way of knowing how they will vote until they cast their ballots.
In his article, “How Republicans Can Still Say No to Trump” Donald DeVine explains the process from his own experience of being at prior conventions.
At the convention, delegates make the rules.
Donald Trump may now be the presumed Republican candidate, but the party convention is not scheduled to close until July 21, and there will not be a nominee until then. Two and a half months is an eternity in this 24/7 media environment. There have been 22 contested party conventions since 1876, one lasting 103 ballots. The fat lady has not sung.
The GOP has survived Richard Nixon, Herbert Hoover, Progressive Teddy, and George W. Bush—and it will survive Trump too.
The Republican Party is an independent association recognized by the Supreme Court as such, able to set its own rules and procedures. And its ultimate rule is that the delegates elected to its convention every four years are in charge, just as state electoral votes are in the general election.
Trump will undoubtedly have 1,237 delegates pledged to him beforehand but that must be confirmed by actual votes from delegates.
After Indiana, the AP has Trump with 1,053 delegates. Forty or so of these are unbound to him and could change their mind. Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and John Kasich have 905 delegates, none of whom have been released. The AP cannot figure how another 69 elected delegates will vote. There are 445 delegates yet to be selected.
Does not Republican Rule 16(a)(2) say that if a delegate tries to vote for someone other than the candidate that won a binding primary that vote shall “not be recognized” by the secretary of the convention? Yes, but the delegates select the secretary.
Rules expert Republican National Committeeman Curly Haugland believes that Rule 37(b) trumps (sorry) 16(a) so that delegates can demand a roll call and vote any way they want. Who will decide? The chairman of the convention, who also is selected by the delegates, will make that decision.
The current rules moreover are only the temporary rules of the convention. Who decides what the permanent rules will be? The delegates do, of course.
Delegates control the credentials committee too. In 1952 Dwight Eisenhower establishment forces challenged three state delegations and that was enough to sink traditionalist conservative Sen. Robert Taft. Maybe turnabout would be fair play.
Relax. It is too early for hara-kiri. I was in the middle of the action at both of the last contested GOP convention votes and it took a few years—but there was a happy ending in the nomination of Ronald Reagan.
Needless to say after reading this article I am still hopeful Trump can and will be stopped from being the GOP nominee and Cruz will occupy the oval office. Our votes this June in Calif. and all of the other states that have not had their primaries and caucuses are even more important now than ever before in our life time.
From The Washington Post:
Why might Ted Cruz win the Republican nomination at the convention? Because he won Iowa.:
In February, Yob released a book called, “Chaos: The Outsider’s Guide to a Contested Republican National Convention.” In it, he describes what a contested convention could look like for his party this July. According to the St. Thomas Source, a newspaper in the U.S. Virgin Islands, Yob “makes a case that what happens in the U.S. territories, including the USVI, may make the difference between ‘chaos’ and ‘catastrophe’ for the GOP at the national convention.” The islands’ six elected delegates could be elected as uncommitted, after all, making them potential free agents on the convention floor.
And the twist: Yob was elected as one of those uncommitted delegates. Yob and his wife moved to the Virgin Islands at the end of last year and in short order both became candidates for delegate slots. In the voting on March 10, each won enough votes to be chosen.
That, despite the fact that the pair (and another couple) were being contested by the local elections board for not having been residents of the territory long enough to be eligible to vote — and therefore eligible to appear on the ballot. A judge stayed that decision for the election itself, but this week the Republican Party of the Virgin Islands threw out the six winners, including the Yobs, and appointed six new delegates instead.
So as it stands, the results of the voting in the Virgin Islands are: One delegate for Donald Trump, one for Ted Cruz, two for Marco Rubio and two uncommitted.
That’s a long story to make two simple points. The first point is that people intimately familiar with the convention process understand that points at which leverage can be applied to affect the outcome. And, second: They’re doing so. Those six delegates are one-half of one percent of what a candidate would need to clinch the nomination, but in a race that may come down to how close Trump gets to 1,237, they matter.
Thanks for posting this Peggy. It sure helps to clarify the situation as it stands.
As many have said, it’s a long haul to November and anything can happen.
Yeah, but all this arcane convention rule manipulating is decidedly undemocratic, and really pisses people off. Witness Nevada.
Trump is your guy. Time now would be much more profitably spent trying to figure out
how that happened … so it don’t happen again.
Good luck with that Libs, I think you have all you can handle within your own party and it’s failed politics.
Obama or Bernie, or Hillary? They all take us down the same road where the government is made BIG and COSTLY while the private sector, and hence the middle class, shrinks. Small businesses die, corporations go into survival mode, the poor are propped up rather than more prosperous, the homeless abound, and the rich get a LOT richer. After nearly eight years of hyper- progressive liberal policy, the writing is on the wall and it looks like East LA, Venezuela, or Beruit.
Tina
Corporations go into survival mode? Really? Under Obama they have record profits! That is what people from both parties are fighting.
Bottom Line you fail to admit they run the gov! Politicians come cheap! They come as Dems and Reps 10K buys a vote!
Heck John Boehner use to walk around the floor during votes handing out checks for a vote! You know this stuff, right?
The Dem Party is now almost the same as GOP They share donors. They use social issues to divide.
But on policy? They are very close. Difference is Some Dems are willing to take on the corruption. And Some Reps are starting to. Trump has woken them up in congress.
Some Rep voters think they are fighting but branding is the issue. If it’s a Republican they are honest right?
Play the Left/Right Game and All People Loose
The amount of Foreign and Domestic Money buying out Democracy is unprecedented and Dangerous.
Fascism is here in America.
“Undemocratic” Libby, really? You’re right about Nevada, but guess you didn’t hear that it was the Democrat’s convention in Legas that the rioting took place. The Republicans had their convention at the same time in Reno and it went just fine without rioting.
Thank you for also showing your ignorance concerning your own party’s arcane manipulation of convention rules. Have you never learned about the Democrat convention of 1924 that took place from June 24 to July 9, 1924 and took 103 ballots to nominate a candidate?
Contested conventions have been the historical norm for both parties, but your party set the all time record which will probably never be beat. Aren’t you proud of your party for working together for the common good of the people in such a civil way. Your party even voted to keep the KKK’s members and its influence in your platform. That should really make you proud.
Here you can read all about it below. Spoiler alert: You’re not going to like how it ends.
The Democratic Convention of 1924:
“In 1924, Democratic prospects in the upcoming presidential election seemed promising. The administration of Republican Calvin Coolidge was rocked by a scandal, the Teapot Dome, which involved secret leasing of the Navy’s oil fields to private businesses.
But the Democratic Party was deeply divided. The Democratic Party was an uneasy coalition of diverse elements: Northerners and Southerners, Westerners and Easterners, Catholics and Jews and Protestants, conservative landowners and agrarian radicals, progressives and big city machines, urban cosmopolitans and small-town traditionalists. On one side were defenders of the Ku Klux Klan, prohibition, and fundamentalism. On the other side were northeastern Catholics and Jewish immigrants and their children. A series of issues that bitterly divided the country during the early 1920s were on display at the 1924 Democratic Convention held at Madison Square Garden in New York City from June 24 to July 9, 1924. These issues included prohibition and religious and racial tolerance. The Northeasterners wanted an explicit condemnation of the Ku Klux Klan.
The two leading candidates symbolized a deep cultural divide. Al Smith, New York’s governor, was a Catholic and an opponent of prohibition and was bitterly opposed by Democrats in the South and West. Former Treasury Secretary William Gibbs McAdoo, a Protestant, defended prohibition and refused to repudiate the Ku Klux Klan, making himself unacceptable to Catholics and Jews in the Northeast.
Newspapers called the convention a “Klanbake,” as pro-Klan and anti-Klan delegates wrangled bitterly over the party platform. The convention opened on a Monday and by Thursday night, after 61 ballots, the convention was deadlocked. The next day, July 4, some 20,000 Klan supporters wearing white hoods and robes held a picnic in New Jersey. One speaker denounced the “clownvention in Jew York.” They threw baseballs at an effigy of Al Smith. A cross-burning culminated the event.
Al Smith and William Gibbs McAdoo withdrew from contention after the 99th ballot. On the 103rd ballot, the weary convention nominated John W. Davis of West Virginia, formerly a US Representative from West Virginia, Solicitor General for the United States, and US Ambassador to Britain under President Woodrow Wilson. The nomination proved worthless. Liberals deserted the Democrats and voted for Robert La Follette, a third party candidate. Apathy and disgust kept many home, and just half of those eligible went to the polls. The Democrat candidate, John Davis, received 8 million votes. The Republican candidate, incumbent president Calvin Coolidge, received 15 million votes.”
http://www.digitalhistory.uh.edu/disp_textbook.cfm?smtID=2&psid=3393
Amazing bit of history, Peggy.
Things like that make you realize the circumstances today are nothing new.
If I could wish for something positive to come out of all of this craziness it would be for a few eyes to be opened, especially in our young people. I so want them to experience a robust economy with lots of opportunity and strength at the top in America.
I understand Trump has broken the record for votes at this point…participation is up.
You people would be doing me a big favor if you would actually read the sentences. Peggy, from where did you get the idea that I approve of the “smoke filled room”, historically or otherwise?
Received via email and posted verbatim: “Who is this Peggy person, and why is she so unhinged about Trump? We WANT Trump. Go vote for Hillary and then we can all be San Francisco.” Dan
That’s funny Soaps. Tell Dan I’m not a party person any more. The Calif. Republican and national party left me, I haven’t changed. You see I was at the CRP convention in Sacramento when they elected a liberal ACLU lawyer for their VP. And I saw Karl Rove repeatedly tell voters in Delaware not to vote for a TP candidate, which resulted in her loosing and a extreme liberal winning the open Senate seat, that gave the Dems the needed votes to pass ObamaCare.
I’m a conservative who doesn’t trust a man who was a Democrat just last year, has a long history of supporting Democrat candidates who beat Republican candidates in elections who went on to vote for and against bills that have raised our debt, deficit, taken away our liberties and freedom of choice.
I don’t trust him to do what he says he’ll do. The man is an opportunist who will say and do anything to promote himself and his businesses. He’s not running to make “America Great”. He’s running to have the title of World Leader to benefit his businesses on the international market under the Trump banner. His good friends the Clintons are doing it too with their foundations. It’s all about greed and money not preserving the American Dream.
Hope this helps him understand why as of today I will not vote for Trump in November, but will hold to my principles and vote for Cruz.
That is just silly and unrealistic. I would vote for Ronald Regan if I could, but he is dead, and so is the candidacy of Lyin’ Ted. I don’t trust any politician, but at least Trump is a virgin, so he is not yet corrupted. As for his donations to Democrats, remember, he was a major businessman in New York. You cannot build a hotel in New York without paying bribes to the Democrat politicians, or you could never get building permit or hire a construction crew. Making a donation to a corrupt politician does not make you corrupt. It just makes you a victim of corruption.
Uh, you need to rethink this. A righteous citizen in this circumstance does not pay the bribe; he drops a dime to the DA.
A person who decides that his project (i.e., making money himself) is more important, and pays the bribe … this person is corrupt.
Libby are you on the right thread? This sounds like it belongs in Jacks homeless post.
YOU need to kick up your moral code.
They are both corrupt…I’ve never been in favor of bribing anyone for anything no matter who you are. And you also don’t get to excuse one because of what another has done…you know that.
Look, the ship “America” has left port. It was once the flag ship of the world but is now like the Titanic, it’s sinking. We now have a choice of two lifeboats to get into, but both of them are sinking because one is overloaded and a bunch of people are drilling little holes in it. The other has a big bully on it with a couple of guys drilling big holes under their seats that no one can see. The lifeguard is on the beach buried with sand the bully kicked at him.
So, the choice is which lifeboat do you get in knowing it’s going down or do you start swimming for shore to dig out the buried lifeguard?
IMO Trump and Hillary are the lifeboats. They offer no hope for our future. Cruz is still alive but unable to save us at this time without our help. Knowing I may not make it to shore I’m still going to try.
I don’t care what Trump did with his money to buy off NY city hall to get his permits. I understand that’s the norm as wrong as it is in businesses all over the US. What I can’t and never will agree with is his supporting Democrats’ election and reelection campaign funds. He helped put into office Obama, Hillary, Reid, and a bunch more who for decades have passed the bills in Congress and put on a democrat president’s desk to sign into law. Need I remind you that ObamaCare would not exist without Pelosi, Reid and Obama? All of which Trump helped elect.
Trump can NOT be trusted now or ever! He just came out with his list of supreme court justices and the very next day he’s changing his mind. The guy is not only certifiably nuts he doesn’t know what he’s doing and the advise he’s getting is written in sand. He’s not going to listen to his advisors because he honestly believe he knows everything about everything. He’s the smartest man in the room and has said that’s how he operates. He surrounds himself with people who aren’t as smart as him.
Hey, vote for him if you want. He’s your pick, go for it and hold your head up high and put bumper stickers all over your car. Me, I didn’t vote for Obama and I’m not voting for Hillary or Trump because they all belong to the same party. One is just a first cousin once removed.
Cruz is not who you think he is.
Also you realize the hedgefund managers hedge their bets right? They donate to both sides. all they want is law written to further their Bank Accounts.
A couple of Cruz’s Donors are now donating to Hillary …… It’s all a game for the corrupt greed of the Oligarchs
Hillary is a republican, the New Dems are Moderate Republicans period.
Never trust any politician. Vet them. Look at their actions? Do they flip flop for donors?
I agree the Parties have left the voters. Both Parties.
This is for Dan to help him understand why I prefer Cruz over Trump.
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2015/11/20/ted-cruz-is-asked-to-name-last-time-he-asked-god-for-forgiveness-watch-him-recall-the-incident/
Religion has no place in politics nor shall it be forced on to others
Morals and Ethics are shown by your actions. When is cruz going to repay taxpayers for the billions lost due to his Phony Shutdown?
Dropping a dime to the corrupt DA would never work. We pay bribes all the time. If you have ever left a tip for a restaurant server who did a sub-par job but you think you must leave a tip anyway, you have paid a bribe. If you have ever given a couple of dollars to an aggressive panhandler just to get him out of your face, you have paid a bribe. Every campaign donation to a politician is a bribe paid in advance. When Charles Keating was questioned about his donations to John McCain, who went to bat for him during his financial scandal, he said, of course I hoped to get something in return. Only a fool would give money for nothing. Whenever you hear a politician claim there was no quid pro quo, you can be sure there was a quid pro quo.
True That!