by Jack
The public has most of the evidence available in this recent attack on ARAMCO inside Saudi Arabia. And that evidence points to just one
culprit, Iran. They had the ability, the opportunity and the motive. They also have a bad record for attacking their neighbors.
The Houthis from Yemen claimed they did the drone attack and they have a strong motive, but they have no ability and no opportunity.
Who else could it be?
The obvious answer points to Iran. (see debris from one of the cruise missiles that failed to deteonate)
Iran is a rogue nation, diplomatically isolated by their fanatical Islamic theocracy that embraces terrorism and war. To understand Iran’s motives you need to look at history and at the Shi’a religion. Of course they (Iran) share some of their Islamic ideology with Arab nations, but make no mistake, they are not Arabs – they are Persian. They don’t speak the same language even though their writing is similar. Speaking Arabic is frowned upon in Iran as socially unacceptable. It’s a cultural thing for Persians who consider themselves a cut above the Arabs.
Persians and Arabs have long had a strained relationship that has ranged the gamut from a peaceful coexistence to protracted war.
For the last 6-700 years they are separated from the more traditional of Sunni version of Islam by their belief in a non-Sunni dynasty that they claim was intended to rule after the death of Prophet Mohammad. That dynastic division is a flash point for religious war today because it involves two incompatible, yet foundational beliefs that make Shiites and Sunnis as different as Muslims and Jews. Both sides predict that only one religion shall survive to become the true version of Islam and the sooner the better.
Politics really can’t be separated from the Islamic religion which is highly political, but aggressively so in Iran. This is why Iran is exporting terrorism to North African states and into the West and has done so since their revolution in 1979.
Iran’s politic hierarchy is only a false front for the religious leader and he holds absolute power. Nothing happens in Iran without the approval of this one man, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He succeeded Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the father of the Iranian Revolution, upon Khomeini’s death in 1989. Khomeini and Khamenei are the only two men to have held the office since the founding of the Islamic Republic. You know the old saying, power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. It’s no different in Iran. This is why Iran is a dangerous rogue
nation, even though in many ways it looks like modern western nation – don’t be fooled, it’s not.
We’ve witnessed and we’ve also been victims of the border clashes between Saudi Arabia and Iran, particularly in the Straights of Hormuz; a vital oil tank shipping corridor for much of the world’s oil. A few weeks ago a Saudi tanker at anchor was hijacked by Iranian special forces in response to the seizure by the British of an Iranian tanker as it attempted to smuggle oil. This was followed by the downing of a US drone. But, the missile attack on the ARAMCO oil refinery was the most aggressive and damaging to date.
Iran took a calculated gamble that this attack on Saudi oil production would bring pressure on the United States to lift the sanctions that are crippling Iran’s economy. But, Iran’s audacious plan had a big flaw. It involved a weak alibi – their pals in Yemen, the Houthis who claimed responsibility.
Houthis are the proxy fighters for Iran in Yemen’s civil war. But, their claim of responsibility is almost comical because they don’t even come close to having the sort of technological expertise needed to build and deploy cruise missiles. The best weapons they have are limited to rifles and RPG’s, cruise missiles are the weapons of only a handful of nations in the Middle East.
Iran lied about the attack, no doubt hoping their cruise missiles could not be tracked to a launch point, but they were wrong. Investigators from the U.S. and Saudi Arabia have officially declared the missiles came from inside Iran and they have the evidence to back it up. The exact location may be disclosed at a special meeting in the UN.
Trump has shown surprising restraint by not using our military to retalliate against Iran after the downing of our drone over international waters. But, this act of war on an ally that threatens to destabilize the global oil market and Trump is turning to the United Nations.
If this refinery attack happened 10 years ago, you can rest assured it would have dramatically impacted our economy. However, thanks to Trump and our new found oil independence, the effects have been modest save for a little price gouging at the pumps.
The big question now is what do we do about Iran? What will it take to bring Iran’s military adventures to an end? What would you do if you were President? I look forward to your replies.
Iran has the missiles – the Houthis do not. Saudi has an army and an air force but would be happier if the US took care of the problem instead so they could keep their hands clean.
Wouldn’t be surprised if there was an air attack against Iran’s oil producing area – just like there was with the Saudis. That would further cripple Iran’s financial dealings. Unfortunately, I don’t see any change in Iranian behavior until the mullahs feel the pinch of sanctions and cries of outrage from the entire world, since the EU is still making excuses for them.
If anyone has read Tom Clancy’s “Executive Orders,” an Iran solution is given there.
“More than 134 people have been brutally executed in Saudi Arabia so far this year, including six who were just kids when they were arrested.
A massive spike in crucifixions and beheadings has seen the slain tortured and slaughtered by brutal methods, according to a human rights organisation.”
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/saudi-arabia-executes-134-people-20072152?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar
If you ask me we should stop considering this country an “ally” just because we want their oil, and not one American should be deployed to fight for this horrific government.
“The Hidden – or Twelfth – Imam plays a dominant role in one specific form of Shi’ite Islamic theology, called “Twelverism,” which happens to be the primary belief system of Iran’s leadership. There is a messianic belief that at the end of days, the Hidden Imam will appear in the midst of a violent apocalyptic scenario played out on a battleground stained with infidels’ blood.”
Link–
https://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Irans-aggression-and-the-Shiite-apocalypse-598904
One theory holds that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wants to bring about the end of days and the return of the Hidden Imam in his lifetime. The attack on ARAMCO upped the ante towards this goal.
More cogent thoughts here–
https://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2019/09/iran-we-got-to-do-something-by-larry-c-johnson-1.html
IMHO, the U.S. cannot solve this alone and should not try to.
I am puzzled. Surely the French have made inquiries. “Guys, we’ve promised you $15B … to tide you over, til Trump is out and the sanctions are off. So what the eff?”
If Iran has explained itself, the French are not sharing.
Here’s another one of Trump’s responses, in addition to increased sanctions.
20 Al-Qaeda, 22 Taliban Militants Killed In Joint U.S.-Afghan Raid In Helmand
OAN Newsroom:
“U.S. Special Forces and the Afghan military carried out a deadly raid against Al-Qaeda militants in Southern Afghanistan. American and Afghan commandos, with the support from a U.S. gunship AC-130, reportedly destroyed an Al-Qaeda compound in the province of Helmand over the weekend.
At least 20 Al-Qaeda terrorists were killed in the joint raid. U.S. military officials said an additional 22 Taliban militants were killed on the scene, while six terror suspects were arrested.
Following the raid, Afghan officials called on the Taliban to come to the negotiating table.
“The Afghan government and the Afghan national security, we all are extending our hand for the peace process and has given the opportunity for the Taliban to come,” stated Afghani Interior Minister Massoud Andarabi.”
https://www.oann.com/20-al-qaeda-22-taliban-militants-killed-in-joint-u-s-afghan-raid-in-helmand/?fbclid=IwAR1vwptKvd6N76mQXjh51mJkT48lHGL1lRKqwcBfgQAjI4PzCqm5bUkA_tI
What we don’t need is another war in the Mideast. Iran and Afghanistan were stupid mistakes. Let Saudi Arabia and Israel fight Iraq and we can cheer from the sidelines.
Sanctions are fine, and if anyone gets violent with us over it, equivalent retaliation through well-directed air strikes and missiles are fine, but no more boots on the ground.
We need to stay the hell out of the business of choosing up sides with other countries, when a lot of the time the ones we’re helping are worse than the ones we fight. Saudi Arabia leads the list in that category. In Afghanistan, who knows who the bad guys are?
All we ever accomplish is to create more refugees and then have to adopt them
CJ, I must agree, we don’t need another war in the Mideast! Then again… I can’t think of a war we did [need] in the Mideast, seems to me they were all pretty pointless, but, I guess you already said that. Glad we could agree again.
Isn’t it a shame for you, Jack, what a long memory I have.
For once we agree.
Even a busted clock is right twice a day. But how do you feel about what the liberals have done to California?
Isn’t it a shame for you, Jack, what a long memory I have.
Hey Libby! Do you approve of how the State of California is being governed today? Do you think the liberals are doing a good job?
Jack told me you and Chris wouldn’t answer me. He’s right. Neither one of you has the guts. I expect you to either pretend you didn’t read this, or, like Chris, come up with a nonsensical evasion. I’m not talking about one policy. I’m talking about what liberals have done to our cities, our schools, our small businesses, and our freedom.
“I’m choosing to be as vague as possible because I can’t win a debate involving specific details. If you don’t answer my generalized question, I win, and if you do answer it, I still win.”
Gee, what a tempting offer.
You’re right Nureyev. Your dance steps give the most illuminating insight into how you like today’s California. You and your liberal comrades love what you’re doing to this state, but are too cowardly to admit it.
CJ … Idaho beckons.
Frankly, I am done with all this sniveling. CA is nothing like perfect, but it beats all hell out of Idaho.
So … stay and help, or bugger bloody off to your Whiteopia!
Sure thing Lib. If you’re done, does that mean you’re going to find some other way to waste time? How about when you feel like expressing yourself, go out on your front steps and light a candle for peace, or make a blanket to commemorate some liberal martyr?