About that Latest Jobs Report…

Posted by Tina

On Friday President Obama commented on the latest jobs report. No one can blame him for feeling happy about good news or for taking a little victory lap in the process. The people don’t all have the same level of financial security that the President and his family enjoys, however. Many of us are still underemployed or out of work. Others are graduating from high school and college and wondering what the future will hold for them. Business people have decisions to make as they try to plan for the future. Americans need encouragement, so good news is welcome news. But Americans also need encouragement based on truth.

Media reporting and financial expert forecasting on this subject is a mixed bag, depending on political or financial biases. But a few in the news business bother to look deeper into the numbers. John Crudele, New York Post is one journalist looking for certainty rather than blue sky and happy talk. In his piece, “Even the Labor Department can’t explain the latest job report,” he compares the way the figures were adjusted for the same month in 2013 with the adjusted figures for 2014. According to Crudele, something doesn’t add up and the Labor Department isn’t talking straight:

The raw, unadjusted data from Labor showed that 523,000 new jobs were created in November 2013. After that figure was seasonally adjusted, the growth was reduced to 203,000.

The raw, unadjusted numbers reported Friday showed 497,000 new jobs — or 26,000 less than last year’s 523,000 raw number. Yet, this November’s adjustment resulted in a headline figure of 321,000 — or a whopping 118,000 more than last year.

If the seasonal adjustments stayed consistent Friday’s growth should have been less than last year’s 203,000!

This is discouraging. The people seem to sense that something is wrong too as reflected in the less than stellar sales on Black Friday this year compared to last year:

Spending tumbled an estimated 11 percent over the weekend from a year earlier, the Washington-based National Retail Federation said yesterday. And more than 6 million shoppers who had been expected to hit stores never showed up.

Web sales, so far, have not outpaced last years sales either. Even with the price of gasoline falling, consumers are just not feeling good about the future. After six long years is it too much to ask that our government at least just give it to us straight? Seriously, is that too much to ask?

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14 Responses to About that Latest Jobs Report…

  1. J. Soden says:

    There’s always been smiles and back-slapping every year at this time when employment numbers naturally go up with seasonal workers.
    And then January rolls around . . . .
    And just how many of those newly created jobs are part-time, Mr. Prez? Hm-m-m-m-m?

  2. Chris says:

    “The people don’t all have the same level of financial security that the President and his family enjoys, however. Many of us are still underemployed or out of work.”

    Class warrior.

  3. Tina says:

    Yes, when under attack one is forced to summon a might for might response with the intention of defeating the evil hoard.

    And since name calling is your chosen method of discourse:

    Robotic activist warrior!

  4. Chris says:

    “Yes, when under attack one is forced to summon a might for might response with the intention of defeating the evil hoard.”

    And this…doesn’t sound paranoid to you?

  5. Tina says:

    Name calling didn’t work the first time so now you add “a little crazy” to your dismissive desperate retort and expect a different result?

    You pass yourself off as someone who cares about the little guy but you have displayed an unbelievable level of tolerance for a President that’s presided over growing levels of poverty with millions of our citizens giving up on finding work. You also pass yourself off as someone who cares about bigotry but show an amazing tolerance for the biggest class/race warfare president we’ve seen in decades. And the only thing you can get worked up about is someone pointing these things out, incredible.

    You also call yourself educated but don’t seem able to grasp the simple truth that calling me and others names will not change the reality of the last six years.

  6. Chris says:

    “You pass yourself off as someone who cares about the little guy but you have displayed an unbelievable level of tolerance for a President that’s presided over growing levels of poverty with millions of our citizens giving up on finding work.”

    1) The unemployment and poverty rates have actually been dropping, much to your chagrin, I’m sure.
    2) The global recession began long before Obama was elected.
    3) Many educated people disagree with you on the causes of poverty and unemployment. These people are not all part of some “evil horde” you believe is “attacking” you. We have legitimate reasons for believing that “the little guy” is best helped through these like raising the minimum wage–you know, actually helping them, rather than helping their bosses and saying that by doing so, it will somehow indirectly help them in some way, at some indeterminate point in the future, maybe. There are legitimate studies with sound methodology that have backed up this theory.

    I understand there are plenty of rational people who disagree with this theory. You demonstrate by your rhetoric every day that you are not one of them. Dismissiveness is a perfectly natural reaction to your irrational arguments. If you don’t want to be called paranoid, don’t say paranoid things.

  7. Tina says:

    1. They are dropping at incredibly slow rates and too many of those who do find employment are only finding part time work or work not in their fields. Nearly every good report in the last six years has been adjusted down. America is doing a little better because of conditions in the world, a windfall for Obama but hardly a result of his policy or studies and theories.

    2. The fact that that the recession began before Obama was elected is irrelevant. Reagan, Clinton, and Bush were all elected during recessions. The thing to note is that the recession ended in Spring of 200. Obama’s polices were enacted, the recovery crashed and the economy has been poor ever since for all except the very rich and some of those who get paid by government.

    3. I am aware of the educated people who disagree. I question their stringent adherence to policies with a record of failure when policies with a record of success, with a positive impact on every segment of our society, have worked when enacted under democrat and republican presidents. I question their ability to exercise simple common sense in these matters as well for the same reason. I don’t question those with dedication to partisan politics or to radical discredited Marxist theories since those with these motivations don’t care about any citizen only in power and control which they acquire, in part, by convincing young skulls full of mush that they are smarter and know better…oh, and that they care.

    “There are legitimate studies with sound methodology that have backed up this theory.”

    Studies and theories don’t create opportunity or hire people. They don’t generate wealth that translates to opportunity. In fact they suck up revenue that could be used to actually accomplish more useful things since they have been discredited so completely!

    You call my arguments irrational and yet you are still unable to tell me how government spending and redistribution of wealth work to create a vibrant economy and plenty of good jobs, much less fund the behemoth government necessary to support the programs.

    I have explained how allowing Americans to keep more of what they earn does lead to greater opportunity and prosperity.I have shown how this has worked under Kennedy, Reagan, Clinton and Bush. Nations around the world have adopted the policies you prefer to one degree or another. They either collapse, like Venezuela, or they struggle under the weight of their massive governments, surviving but not flourishing. None has ever matched the productivity and ingenuity of America, generated as much wealth and opportunity, or come to the aid of others. Further proof is in the millions of people that come to America because of freedom, opportunity and the chance to acquire a better life. The insolvency and debt of cities and states run under the ideas you espouse stand as further proof that radical progressive policies do not work.

    And for the record, I didn’t say I minded being called paranoid. The suggestion that I did points to your own arrogance or, perhaps you have simply failed to read for comprehension, eh teach?

    The National Debt Clock shows our national debt topped the $18 Trillion mark this month. During the Bush years the educated people who “disagree with me” and have “legitimate studies” to draw from were having conniption fits over $10 Trillion in debt and deficit spending. The president called it unpatriotic and irresponsible. And yet Bush managed to create a better economy despite the Clinton tech bubble and recession, 911 and its effects on Wall Street, war, and a massive hurricane. Most of their criticism was based in politics rather than facts.

    Get real!

  8. Chris says:

    Tina: “You call my arguments irrational and yet you are still unable to tell me how government spending and redistribution of wealth work to create a vibrant economy and plenty of good jobs, much less fund the behemoth government necessary to support the programs.”

    Well, if you’re just going to tell the same lie I’ve addressed dozens of times here, then I’m out.

  9. Tina says:

    You should be out; you cannot answer the question!

    And that make your accusation a big FAT LIE!

  10. Chris says:

    I’ve answered that question dozens of times. Every two weeks you choose to pretend I have never answered it, I answer it again, and then the cycle repeats. I’m done; you do not argue in good faith or with anything resembling intellectual honesty.

  11. Tina says:

    Chris you have repeatedly given me theories but you have not explained to our readers HOW spending and redistribution by the government, money printing, adding costly regulations, raising the minimum wage, keeping fuel prices high, or engaging in negative rhetoric about the producers and investors in our society will lead to job and wealth creation, a vibrant economy, or good jobs.

    Key word: HOW!!! How does your adopted theory work? What are the mechanisms that cause the needed positive result?

  12. Steve says:

    I would argue that the little guy, or even us middle class workers, has been helped far more by the recent gas price drop than any minimum wage increase. Raising the minimum wage to $9 or $10 does nothing for, and actually hurts with inflation, the person who makes $12.50. But dropping gas prices actually helps all of them because most people who work for a living have to drive to their jobs. Having extra money in pocket also helps stimulate the economy.
    Point being, wouldn’t it be better to just get the government out of our pockets and lower taxes on things like gasoline? The money government takes from us never seems to help anyone but government employees anyway.

  13. Tina says:

    Steve you present many fine points and a strong illustration of simple common sense put to good use…congrats 😉

  14. Tina says:

    Heard this morning on the business channel I watch that although the government has been telling us there is no inflation under current policy housing, food, tuition, and until quite recently gasoline prices have gone up by 5% while wages for the middle class have remained stagnant or gone up a mere 2%. Left policies are really hurting the middle class.

    You’re right, falling gasoline prices are a Godsend for the people. It helps consumers in every class and it helps business! Its a result of a glut of oil and the very sound decision by OPEC to forgo their profits and allow the prices to fall.

    Amazingly the people still show a certain amount of reluctance to spend. Who can blame them with all of the uncertainty this administration has sewn into the fabric of our economy.

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