The Battle to Retake Mosul

by Jack

THIS IS MOSUL, EVER SEE ANY PICTURES? IT’S A MIX OF THE MODERN AND THE ANCIENT.

mosul34(Click to enlarge pictures) The City of Mosul in Iraq is one of the most historic places on Earth. It’s home to about 1.8 million people when counting the urban area and over 1 million within the city limits.

Mosul, an affluent city by middle east standards, is loaded with history. British writer Agatha Christie once lived there while her husband, an archeologist, excavated a dig-site near St. Elijah’s Monastery south of Mosul. This is Iraq’s oldest Christian monastery dating from the 6th Century.

The origins of the city date back well over 600 BCE. It’s first recorded name was Nineveh and it appears in the Bible as a city that fell to the Babylonians and was renamed Mépsila. It was noted in a Greek exploration report around 410 BCE as a small town on the banks of the Tigris. It’s also known as the Pearl of the North or the “Hump” see the walled area in photo showing the high plateau.

After ISIS invaded the Christians fled and so did the Shiite Muslim’s. The area is now under total ISIS/Sunni control.

dam _Mosul(Isis says they will destroy this beautiful modern dam if Mosul is attacked)

War is nothing new to Mosul, countless battles over competing religions and powers have been fought here, but a military victory, no matter by who it is, never leaves a lasting peace, history has been quite clear on this. Peace doesn’t have a chance when there is religious persecution and persecution of ethnic minorities, again, this has been going on for over 2000 years and in most of the Middle East and they still haven’t figured out how to get along with each other. However, with modern weapons this “persecution” is about to get really bloody. If you think the beheadings are bad, just wait for the carpet bombing to start, it’s a 1000X worse.

Mosul could become the defining battle for ultimate control of Iraq; it all depends on how ISIL and the local Sunni’s react to the intended to retaking by aMosul_400 mostly Shia military force. Local Sunni’s may not like ISIS, but chances are they will like Iraqi Army forces even less. Iraq’s former Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki (A Shia controlled by Iran), treated the Sunni population rather poorly and they haven’t forgotten. Sunni’s were aligned with Saddam Hussein and when the US pulled out Maliki exacted his revenge and that eventually helped ISIS come to power.

According to President Obama’s war planners who are working with the Shiite army (aka the Iraqi Army), the battle will begin sometime in April or May as temperatures begin to exceed 110 degrees Fahrenheit, May-August are the hottest months of the year. Oddly, the plans to retake Mosul are no secret and this has many people wondering why? The Iraqi divisions to be involved are clearly laid out for the media. The details include Kurdish units and all the numbers and compositions of units are open to reporters. Why they are telling ISIS and the rest of the world is a mystery and it’s certainly a departure from past practice throughout history.

Some speculate that by reporting the large numbers of Iraqi forces, which allegedly will greatly exceed ISIS forces, that ISIS will decide they can’t win. Then they will simply retreat to fight another day. Seems overly optimistic, but that’s about all anyone can make of this odd move. However, no signs of folding up shop and is happening. On the contrary, ISIS is digging in and they are increasing their forces. They are well equipped with previously abandoned Iraqi armored vehicles and a vast array of abandoned Iraqi weaponry and some captured Syrian weapons too.

ISIS isn’t the only guilty party when it comes to persecution and genocide in the name of Allah.

Iraqi Shiite militia’s have had their revenge killings too. Shiite militias are said to have massacred more than 70 Sunni villagers during an operation against jihadists in Diyala province last year and in Tikrit where even more were killed. The fighting between Sunni and Shiite goes back before the United States was even a country, so George Bush can’t be blamed for thisisil-destroys-shia- one. But, it also illustrates the futility of trying to stabilize a region dedicated to ethnic cleansing by two intractable forces. Only one side or the other is going to remain. So, when the mostly Shiite Iraqi army arrives on the scene to recapture Mosul, they are likely to find themselves fighting more than just ISIS. There are over a million Sunni’s that could turn this fight into the largest proxy war to date between fanatical Saudi backed Sunni’s and equally fanatical, but poorly led, Iranian backed Shia’s with US advisors.

The picture on the right shows an ancient Shia Mosque being destroyed by ISIL. Click on the thumbnail to see the full size picture.

Whatever you think of our responsibility to stabilize Iraq now, one thing is certain, it’s a mess. And it’s going to take more resources and more time than most of us are prepared to give, even if we could. It’s unlikely any one faction is going to be able to fight their way to victory and peace short of leveling everything into green glass.

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3 Responses to The Battle to Retake Mosul

  1. RHT447 says:

    From elsewhere on the web—

    Link—http://defense-training.com/dti/isis-update/

    ISIS Update

    Posted by John S. Farnam on 24 Feb 2015

    24 Feb 15

    “All are born ignorant. Many then spend the remainder of their natural lives practicing it to perfection!”

    Wiggington

    ISIS Update, from a friend in the System:

    “We review all ISIS/AlQaeda documents, publications and videos here.

    Key learnings:

    1) They go to great lengths to identify and recruit potential jihadis from Western cultures. Their literature provides detailed schematics with regard to building bombs from local materials, and detailed instructions on how to smuggle them through security checkpoints. Mostly low-tech, but effective.

    Their literature, once rude and crude, is now polished and professional! They obviously pay big money to get good and experienced editors, as well as technical people. Well written articles, features, and interviews. All slanted to appeal to young Westerners.

    2) They are no amateurs! I have watched countless videos of ISIS fighters aggressively confronting Iraqi Army troops.

    Here are my take-aways:

    a High, almost reckless, degree of aggressiveness. They will come right after you, without hesitation! They display no fear of fixed, defensive positions, no matter how formidable. They nonchalantly accept a high level of casualties. Inflicting heavy casualties does not slow down the rest!

    b They are extremely competent with satchel-charges and RPGs and dependably employ them in significant numbers.

    c. They have good individual gear. Rifles are a mixture of Kalashnikovs and M4s. Mostly iron sights. I see most employing good cheek-welds, competent finger discipline, and using cover appropriately. They’ve obviously been exposed to some degree of Western training.

    Most are wearing new, camouflage uniforms, new web-gear, sidearms, and knives.

    Lots of Draganov/PSL variants. In fact, these are the only long guns I see equipped with optics.

    d. They are well practiced in small-unit tactics. PKMs provide a base of fire, while maneuver elements aggress the objective. The Soviet 7.62x54R round is amazingly effective in unceremoniously converting ‘cover’ to concealment. Oh, that our SAW did anything similar!

    e. No body armor, nor helmets on the bulk of ISIS fighters

    3) Their cruelty and brutality know no bounds! They delight in inflicting pain on helpless people. No hesitation, no lamentation, and no mercy. When captured, you’re finished!

    Obviously, many of these videos are edited, and chosen for their message, but ISIS fighters I’ve seen appear mostly well trained, very well armed, and well motivated.

    It is clear to me that these people are not vulnerable to reason, nor negotiation. They believe they are living in ‘end times,’ and that it is their sacred duty to exterminate all of us. And, they mean to do it!

    Expecting them to shoot themselves the moment police show up, the way a typical ‘active shooter’ does in the country, represents delusional thinking! They are not afraid, and they are able to plan well, move well, communicate well, equip well, organize well, and fight well as a team. They have no concern, nor reverence, for human life, even their own!

    For one, I’m frightened!

    And for one, I’m always armed, and I constantly keep an M4 in my car, and another next to my bed!”

    “When you will not fight when you can easily win, without bloodshed, and when you still will not fight when victory is sure and not too costly, you may well come to the moment when you will have no choice but to fight with odds against you, and you have only a small chance of survival. There may even be a worse case:

    You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, simply because it is better to perish as warriors than live as slaves.”

    Churchill

    /John

  2. Georgia says:

    Where is the Saudi Military? Why are we paying for the mistakes of the Iraq war still?

    Frankly Foreign policy from all parties in our government is causing us harm. We are on the brink of WW3. There is more going on than this and I am very concerned.

  3. Dan the Man says:

    ISIS fanatics remind me of the fighting style of the japanese in world war 2. They are fearless, aggressive and ruthless. I expect that a few of them sneaking into the USA could cause us a whole lot of harm.

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