by Jack
If you have been listening at all to the pundits coving this year’s election, you might think the dye is cast in Iowa. Far from it! Iowa voters are a special group and not necessarily representative of the nation’s average voter. For example, they have the corn lobby for ethanol and a lot of people depend on that revenue, but its a poor deal for the rest of America because it’s simply not cost efficient and requires heavy government subsidies to make it work.
Of course a candidate who does well in Iowa is going to claim its a mandate victory by the people, hoping to discourage as many of the competition as possible. But, it’s such a small victory in reality. Typically the winner might get 17-20% of the possible vote out of about 2,000,000 registered voters. The voters registered Democrat v Republican total about 1.2 million with Republicans having a narrow edge. Gaining 28-30% of the Republican vote is not a mandate by a long shot.
The Iowa race is significant in that it may push many undecided voters in the upcoming primaries over to what they see as the “winner’s side”. This is likely to give momentum to the front runner (probably Trump) in the next primary… which is New Hampshire. Then its followed by Nevada and then South Carolina.
So, I’m withholding my bet until we are at least 5 states into the primary. Then, if Trump still holds the lead, he’s got the momentum that could take him all the way to the general election.
But, wait! The GOP is not going to let Trump steam roll over the party. Trump is vehemently opposed by the GOP and they are preparing a blitz of negative ads. If the past is any indication, well, those mudslinging ads could knock Trump out of the race. The GOP doesn’t want Trump…period. Cruz is not loved either. Bush has about $7M in his war chest and so does Rubio, and they GOP could easily support either of them. Now, you know a good portion of their campaign money is going to be spent attacking Trump and not pushing their issues. If they don’t, and Trump builds the momentum with early wins, they probably can’t catch him.
This is how important Iowa is, it’s a 6 on the 1 to 10 scale. Will be fun to see how it plays out tonight. Look for several candidates to pull out and give their votes to someone other than Trump.
Very interesting article using military strategy to understand candidates and the political process for 2016.
Military Strategist Explains Why Donald Trump Leads—And How He Will Fail:
“Air Force fighter pilot John Boyd’s theory about confounding opponents with a constantly shifting battlefield applies to Donald Trump and all GOP aspirants.”
http://thefederalist.com/2015/12/16/military-strategist-explains-why-donald-trump-leads-and-how-he-will-fail/
Yahooooo! Cruz just won Iowa caucus.
Even Megyn Kelly and Fox lying didn’t stop the people from knowing the truth.
https://scontent.fsnc1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpt1/v/t1.0-9/12651191_470107053192808_3386698375321666566_n.jpg?oh=24ff872d7372c8230b305e574d64c32e&oe=5732BF4A
Lying Peggy?
I saw it as uncertainty and conflict questioned during the debate and Megyn asking for clarification, which she got. Maybe I missed something.
Yup, she lied and lied by omission. Remember Candy Crowley pulled a similar stunt on Romney during his debate with Obama? Said one thing during the debate and the complete opposite after.
From Red State.
No, Ted Cruz Did NOT Support Amnesty, Concedes Megyn Kelly After #GOPDebate:
“During the Fox News/Google GOP debate on Thursday night, the candidates, especially Rubio and Cruz, were taken to task over their record on immigration. In one exchange, moderator Megyn Kelly challenged Senator Cruz to on whether, based on his amendments offered, he supported legalization. “Yes it would,” said Kelly of his amendment.
However, later that evening Kelly interviewed Cruz and conceded an important point. That being pretty much the opposite, which is that he did not and does not support legalizing the status of people here illegally.”
http://www.redstate.com/absentee/2016/01/29/ted-cruz-support-amnesty-concedes-megyn-kelly-gopdebate/
With Cruz’s win in Iowa, ya think TheDonald might be re-thinking his stunt with Fox News debates??????
And if the anointed Demwit candidate can’t do any better than a virtual tie with a 70+ year old Socialist, the coronation has been officially cancelled.
The Demwits may still have to wait for official results ’till those “missing” votes are in . . . . .
Turns out Ethanol is corrosive and tears up small engines. It has been known to harm some big cars.
Iowa is now just a media created push. The business of elections while the media rakes in the dough and controls the message.
Did you know the TPP was signed in New Zealand? Not a peep from the 6 media Moguls who stand to profit from it. Against the rules to mention it. Even MSNBC fired Ed Shultz for talking about it.
Do not let the media control the news you see…………….. Iowa…. Meh