Posted by Tina
The Washington Times cited two studies that add to the poor record of climate change models. An international study published in Nature examined rainfall in the Northern Hemisphere in a 1200 year period and found that climate models were “frequently wrong” in predicting periods of extreme rain or drought:
In the 20th century, for example, higher-than-average temperatures failed to produce wet-dry extremes, which contradicts the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s consensus that global warming will make dry areas drier and wet areas wetter.
The scientists also found periods of extreme variability in centuries prior to the Industrial Revolution and the rise of greenhouse-gas emissions in the atmosphere. For example, the study found severe drought in the 12th century, which was warmer than average, as well as the 15th century, which was colder.
Lead author Fredrik Ljungqvist of Stockholm University: “It might be more difficult than often assumed to project into the future. The truth can be much, much more complicated.”
Another study that came out of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in December came to the same conclusion:
…climate models “overestimate the increase in global precipitation due to climate change,” in part because they fail to take into account the increased absorption of sunlight by water vapor.
Matthew Kirby of California State University Fullerton’s Department of Geological Sciences challenged the conclusions, “Do their results invalidate current predictive models? Certainly not. But they do highlight a big challenge for climate modellers, and present major research opportunities both for modellers and climate scientists.”
They just won’t let it go.
Anthony Watts, of Watts Up With That, was cited for the Livermore story. Awhile back he also posted, The big list of failed climate predictions, reminders that might be appropriate about now. You’ll find more failed predictions in comments.