The Great Recession Is Over!

Hindsight tells us the begining of the end of the Great Recession will probably be seen as March 2009, at least for the stock market. As you can see by the stock chart there was a definate pattern reversal for the DOW in March. However, the stock market operates on future expectations. The key word is expectations. However as time slipped by and we are now into October, it was confirmation that the expectation that began in March was on track. Typically the market leads events by as much as 6 months or more. So in a year or two when the true turning point of the recession will be clear, it will likely be seen as around September or October of 09. The really good news for you is we have started in recovery. The bad news is it may be a long recovery that feels more like we’re still in recession for quite a bit longer. My educated guess says we won’t see any noticible changes until at least the first quarter of 2010. However, there are still any number of events that could derail recovery; it’s going to be a nail bitter and it will take a long time, of that I have no doubt!