by Jack Lee
November 2nd is right around the corner and a lot of anxious voters on both sides of the political isle are wondering, how’s the election going, are we winning?
Using all the available polling data and having spent most of the weekend listening to commentators and round table discussion I’ve boiled it down for those of you who have better things to do. Here’s my home stretch synopsis:
Dems are hoping Hispanic voters will be a deciding factor in many races because of their new large numbers, but in reality they could have been the deciding factor. Because outside this State, Hispanic voters are expected to have a low turnout. Hispanic voters tend to be younger, under 40 and politics is not a big thing, but having a job and putting food on the table is, so a rep win could be good for them. Hispanics don’t have a lot of compelling issues this time around, so don’t expect a big block of Hispanic voters to sway anb election, they’re not that interested…today. But, it would be wrong to count them out as we head into 2012!
Within California the only race that has grabbed the Hispanic attention (mildly) is Whitman verses Brown and its likely Brown has a slight edge now. Had it not been for the Whitman’s maid incident the edge would probably have gone to Whitman at this point. The maid event of course was contrived and exploited by the Brown camp, but Hispanic voters appear not to see they’ve been manipulated, they think Whitman doesn’t like them.
A very small margin is going to decide this race…too close to call, a real cliff hanger.
Prop 19 and Prop 23 are our two hottest issues in Calif. The nation is looking at us and hoping Californian’s won’t legalize marijuana, so are the feds. They are concerned about a sudden, uncontrolled spread of narcotics and its costly societal impact. It looks like 19 is losing some of its appeal as the word spreads how poorly written it is. Too many unknowns and it leaves the work place wide open to employees who claim a medicinal need to smoke dope. The reality of what the Prop 19 people are asking appears to be too much. On the other prop, the opposition’s rhetoric has had more clout. Green issues have always been popular in this state, but with unemployment in many areas still over 11% and some ag areas as high as 14% jobs cancel green. The anti-23 crowd loses ground when pitted against informed voters and they gain ground with people who vote the democrat slate and knee jerk greens. So California’s terrible demographics once again goes against the well reasoned portion of our electorate, Prop 23 is now failing, but not by much.
In Nevada Harry Reid is running the race of his life. Reid is losing, but not by enough to call it game over. Angle is a mediocre politician and is too verbose. At times she over states her case so much she looks like a rambling nut. On the other side, Reid is a man of low ethics, purely partisan, willing to say and do whatever it takes to be re-elected. He comes off as mean spirited and untrustworthy. A decent challenger would have had him down by 15 percentage points at this late stage.
Overall Republicans are poised for victory, thanks mostly to Obama’s healthcare and reckless and extravagant stimulous and corporate bailouts.
Reps have solidified their voter base in areas where the dems are trailing and there is little or no hope dems will be able to turn it around now…for them it truly is game over. But, republicans will have won more than a numerical advantage in the House. They will have also won themselves a performance contract with America. And a breach of performance this time around will have disastrous long term consequences for the GOP. The upside is that by fulfilling their sworn obligations it will spell further disaster for the dems and their union allies.
PS Weather has a lot to do with the liberal turnout and it always has. If California is storming in SoCal on Nov. 2nd it could change the turnout just enough to allow Whitman a win, but it would be a squeeky thin margin. Currently long range forecast shows a high chance of really bad weather heading our way.
Republicans will pick up less than twenty seats.
The TEA party will pick up ZERO seats.
Quentin, are you speaking for CA only?
Well that is a courageous prediction, we’ll see how much you know about the Tea party come Nov. 2nd.
so you would call that prediction “courageous”…ok…well I would call that characterization of his prediction “generous”.
Perhaps he is convinced that the world workers party is poised to take control.
I agree with Quentin…the Tea party will pick up zero seats because the Tea party is not a party.
HOWEVER…the influence of the Tea Party on the leection, including even Democrat incumbants with a chance to win cannot be denied…none are bragging about their record and some are distancing from Obama and their party.
Nick..it was said tongue in cheek
A PPIC poll a couple weeks ago actually showed Prop 23 winning with latino voters by a substantial margin. Environmentalists will have to hope for less minority turnout to help their cause. Despite being outfunded by rich liberal elitists, Prop 23 remains competitive depending on turnout.
Right now the shining star in CA is Carly Fiorina. She stuck to her conservative principles and is in a dead heat with California’s liberal dunce, Barbara Boxer.
Nationwide Republicans only need 39 seats to take back Congress. They are poised to win anywhere from 45 to 100, depending on who you talk too. Of course, our resident self-appointed genius Quentin has made his own informed prediction on a much lower number. I guess we’ll see just how informed he is next week.
Steve I am hoping 23 will pass, but I have to be honest and report what I found over the weekend. It sure looks like its going to be a struggle to get it thru. But like you say, if people can figure out that jobs really are at risk maybe we can save it. The dems have sure done a hatchet job on this one.
lol…I know Jack…so was mine
“A PPIC poll a couple weeks ago actually showed Prop 23 winning with latino voters by a substantial margin”
This is really good…hope it continues.
How ya been, Nick?
I was referring to all the races, nationwide.
Tina, of course, misunderstood as she always does.
The TEAbaggerz won’t win a single race they’re in.
The majority of voters will not accept, “I am not a witch” in Delaware.
Voters in Alaska realize that arresting someone you don’t agree with–you guys really have a problem with Constitutional rights, don’t you?–is not a value to vote for.
The TEAbagger stomping on the head of an opponent isn’t going to help put the bagger candidate over the top in Kentucky, either.
People are smarter than you think.
Benn alright, pretty busy but doing well, yourself?
So in all of these races you would prefer a Democrat victory or did you have third party candidates in mind?
As far as Tea Party endorsed candidates (if everyone is happy with that definition) you really think none of them will win?
I mean I understand that you dont want them tow in, but you really think none of them will? And you’re chalking that up to your belief that smart people would not vote for a Tea Party candidate?
Given your statement concerning arresting people who don’t agree with you, isn’t the entire progressive platform predicated on a philosophy which insists that government force must be used to enforce their policies?
For instance, a modern conservative or classical liberal looks at a person that wishes to live as a communist and has no problem with this as long as he/she is not forced to subsidize the lifestyle. The liberal progressive on the other hand always seems to require the forced subsidization from those who would opt not to participate.
There seems to be a very large disconnect between legitimate roles of government/force between modern liberal progressives and say…the founding fathers.
Quentin: “The TEAbagger stomping on the head of an opponent isn’t going to help put the bagger candidate over the top in Kentucky, either.”
Four things:
1. I don’t condone violence or excuse bad behavior, including this instance.
2. A foot was strongly placed on the womans head…she wasn’t “stomped”!
3. The woman was attempting to shove her poster through the window where the candidate was seated. As one person has said, if the secret service had been there this woman would have been man-handled to the ground and restrained in like fashion because her actions might have been intended as a threat to the candidate! She is a prominant leftist activist and she invited this behavior through inappropriate conduct. (Do we know whether the man that restrained her was on her team or not?)
4. If not…absent any official security this person took matters into his own hands believing the candidate might be in danger.
“The TEAbaggerz won’t win a single race they’re in.”
And you will be back here on Wednesday to acknowledge your error if they do win, right? And you will thenceforth treat them, and their supporters, with a little more respect by calling them by their chosen name, right? (NOT!…still too smug and superior, I’ll bet.)