by Jack Lee
On Friday the California Senate cleared the way for spending $8 billion dollars from the sale of State revenue bonds to begin construction of the nation’s first high speed rail system.
The move marked major political victories for Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown and the Obama administration. Both have promoted bullet trains as job generators and clean transportation alternatives, that few people will ever ride… due to the cost and those inconvenient train schedules and terminal locations. Mass transit by train has never been a profitable venture for the railroads since 1860, however that has not dampened the excitement our liberals have for this $150 billion dollar gamble.
In a narrow 21-16 party-line vote that involved intense lobbying by the governor, legislative leaders and labor groups, the state Senate approved the measure marking the launch of California’s ambitious bullet train, which has spent years in the planning stages.
The revised plan calls for the system to share Caltrain rail lines from San Jose to San Francisco and Metrolink and Amtrak lines from Los Angeles to Anaheim — a so-called “blended” approach. There would be far fewer trains running, as well. in the initial proposal as many as 12 trains per hour are supposed to run in each direction and the system has to operate without taxpayer subsidies. However, exactly where the riders will come from remains to be seen. In the final analysis it’s doubtful that even two or three trains per day would be needed. This low ridership would require subsidies to stay alive.
The high speed rail will be in direct competition with air travel that has invested mllions in terminals and aircraft to provide convenient, low cost travel up and down California. Flights from LA to SF would likely remain the quickest way to get from point to point and possibly the cheapest!
“The rider will transfer to another train, operating side by side with commuter trains, a journey that undermines the rapid-trip vision sold to voters. Even in the best-possible scenario, the high-speed-rail trip would take almost twice as long as California’s current high-speed system — Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV), which offers reasonably priced, frequent flights between most of the state’s major cities. Many critics believe a train trip of two hours and 40 minutes from Los Angeles to San Francisco is an impossibility. ” Steven Greenhut, Bloomberg Business News.
“The Legislature took bold action today that gets Californians back to work and puts California out in front (of a firing squad) once again,” Brown said.
“The authority’s most recent business plan floated the idea of train fares at $104.75 from San Francisco to Los Angeles – or 83 percent of a plane trip’s projected cost, instead of the 50 percent in its previous report. For ridership, that difference is huge: The authority projects 58 million riders with the 50 percent level in 2035. At 83 percent, it drops to 41 million. Critics contend that the projections are unrealistic. Everyone agrees ridership estimates are, at this point, informed speculation at best. ” http://www.governing.com/topics/transportation-infrastructure/High-Speed-Rail-Transit-Solution.html
State and federal officials also said high-speed rail would create a lot of temporary jobs.
” … few people will ever ride… ”
You won’t. We all know that. But lots of other people will.
“The authority’s most recent business plan floated the idea of train fares at $104.75 from San Francisco to Los Angeles – or 83 percent of a plane trip’s projected cost….”
And you don’t have to deal with the charmers of the TSA. It’s gonna be great.
This will end in failure. One, it will either waste billions of dollars in overruns and not get completed. Or it will waste extra billions of dollars in overruns, get completed and fail. It will end up be owned by the Chinese for a bag of rice and an ipod (an old one). It is Obama care on rails.
Who is going to ride this thing? Why would you? If you live in Nor Cal and need to get to So Cal, how is it going to work so it doesn’t cost you more money and stress compared to a flight that will get you much closer, much faster to your final destination? How is getting into SF going to save you time or money not to mention stress? I would be willing to pay more not to go to SF, am I alone? Why didn’t they send it to Sacramento? Could it have something to do with the added hidden costs of dealing with SF? I bet SF will add a hefty train tax and sales tax and some sort of danger tax because it is “high speed”. In the end it will only take you 3x longer and 100% more to take the train compared to flying. Tell me I am wrong.
OK my Tax paying cohorts get ready for the Ruling Liberal latest: The high speed Bullet suppository aimed right down the middle of your wallet area,
This is excerpts of a report in 1997 using 96,billion as a cost basis without projecting 2012 costs (now 150 billion) or the fact the bond interest cost will be based on our bankrupt state credit rating:
You have to love the wording
Social costs additional net external costs to society due to emissions
(SEC), accidents (SAC), and noise (SNC) and are true resource costs used
in making and using transportation services.
The method used to estimate the full cost (FC) of high-speed travel will
combine elements from a number of sources. Adding and subtracting the
above factors, thereby avoiding double-counting, we have the following
equation, the components of which will be dealt with in turn in the paper:
FC=ICC + IOC + CCC+ COC- CT +UCC + UOC UT +UTC + UDC- SEC+ SNC+ SAC= $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ of money we DO NOT HAVE
(Or how to make the equations less understanding to the lay person tax payer)
Segment Distance KM Total cost=costper Meter
LA Basin 38.8 $742,000,000 $19,100,000
Techachapi viaPalmdale 136 $2,760,000,000 $20,260,000
Central Valley 324 2,010,000,000 6,190,000
Pacheco Pass-Gilroy 53.8 $1,590,000,00 $29,550,000
Gilroy-San Jose 45.9 $531,000,000 $11,570,000
San Jose-San Francisco 77.6 $1,964,000,000 $25,310,000
OH yes this little ‘tid bit’ was buried in the report some many pages away from the projected figures of 1997. “Unless these extraordinary economies actually are achieved, the train will require alarmingly high annual operating subsidies “forever,” as the experts wrote in a report last month. The annual operating deficit could top $2 billion”, they wrote.
What is boils down to is about $14000.00 PER FOOT of probable financial failure, But the Libby’s of California will adore it without ever considering how fast it will help accelerate this states financial decline.
HERE is your high speed rail.
It’s just another browndoggle. Hat tip to calwatchdog.org
http://www.calwatchdog.com/2012/07/09/bring-on-the-browndoggle/
Children! The left are a bunch of children playing with toy trains while the people can’t find work and not a smart business person among them.
Libby I don’t want to hear another da*n word about money for education or poor people. NOT ANOTHER WORD! And to think you will plunk your fancy a** in one of the rickety rackety seats with great fanfare well into your dotage while young folk like Chris can only look forward to decades of high taxes and cuts to education to pay for it.
Another win for the 1%ers. While schools close, the corporats will make off will billions. The TSA will be all over passengers-that dog won’t hunt.
Just another arrow in the quiver of division . . . yes! These guys are JUST LIKE the founding fathers!
“What is boils down to is about $14000.00 PER FOOT ….”
I know it sounds like a lot. But that $14,000 is going to employ several hundred fellas, who will, in turn, support their local economies … and then we will have a really spiffy train to ride.
Big picture, people.