by Jack Lee
November 2nd is right around the corner and a lot of anxious voters on both sides of the political isle are wondering, how’s the election going, are we winning?
Using all the available polling data and having spent most of the weekend listening to commentators and round table discussion I’ve boiled it down for those of you who have better things to do. Here’s my home stretch synopsis:
Dems are hoping Hispanic voters will be a deciding factor in many races because of their new large numbers, but in reality they could have been the deciding factor. Because outside this State, Hispanic voters are expected to have a low turnout. Hispanic voters tend to be younger, under 40 and politics is not a big thing, but having a job and putting food on the table is, so a rep win could be good for them. Hispanics don’t have a lot of compelling issues this time around, so don’t expect a big block of Hispanic voters to sway anb election, they’re not that interested…today. But, it would be wrong to count them out as we head into 2012!
Within California the only race that has grabbed the Hispanic attention (mildly) is Whitman verses Brown and its likely Brown has a slight edge now. Had it not been for the Whitman’s maid incident the edge would probably have gone to Whitman at this point. The maid event of course was contrived and exploited by the Brown camp, but Hispanic voters appear not to see they’ve been manipulated, they think Whitman doesn’t like them.
A very small margin is going to decide this race…too close to call, a real cliff hanger.
Prop 19 and Prop 23 are our two hottest issues in Calif. The nation is looking at us and hoping Californian’s won’t legalize marijuana, so are the feds. They are concerned about a sudden, uncontrolled spread of narcotics and its costly societal impact. It looks like 19 is losing some of its appeal as the word spreads how poorly written it is. Too many unknowns and it leaves the work place wide open to employees who claim a medicinal need to smoke dope. The reality of what the Prop 19 people are asking appears to be too much. On the other prop, the opposition’s rhetoric has had more clout. Green issues have always been popular in this state, but with unemployment in many areas still over 11% and some ag areas as high as 14% jobs cancel green. The anti-23 crowd loses ground when pitted against informed voters and they gain ground with people who vote the democrat slate and knee jerk greens. So California’s terrible demographics once again goes against the well reasoned portion of our electorate, Prop 23 is now failing, but not by much.
In Nevada Harry Reid is running the race of his life. Reid is losing, but not by enough to call it game over. Angle is a mediocre politician and is too verbose. At times she over states her case so much she looks like a rambling nut. On the other side, Reid is a man of low ethics, purely partisan, willing to say and do whatever it takes to be re-elected. He comes off as mean spirited and untrustworthy. A decent challenger would have had him down by 15 percentage points at this late stage.
Overall Republicans are poised for victory, thanks mostly to Obama’s healthcare and reckless and extravagant stimulous and corporate bailouts.
Reps have solidified their voter base in areas where the dems are trailing and there is little or no hope dems will be able to turn it around now…for them it truly is game over. But, republicans will have won more than a numerical advantage in the House. They will have also won themselves a performance contract with America. And a breach of performance this time around will have disastrous long term consequences for the GOP. The upside is that by fulfilling their sworn obligations it will spell further disaster for the dems and their union allies.
PS Weather has a lot to do with the liberal turnout and it always has. If California is storming in SoCal on Nov. 2nd it could change the turnout just enough to allow Whitman a win, but it would be a squeeky thin margin. Currently long range forecast shows a high chance of really bad weather heading our way.
